554 Ivy Cross Ln · Sugar Land, TX 77479

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2000 5,333 sqft lot Est $341k · 9% under $102/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gorgeous one brick story house with new vinyl floor in living and formal dining rooms and den. Open kitchen and breakfast bar with corian countertop and new tile floors. Renovated bathroom showers, new tile floor. Reserve osmosis drinking water system. Berber carpet in all 3 bedrooms and spacious game room in the loft. Excellence Fort Bend Schools district! Convenient school bus stops for all 3 area schools. Community with baseball playground, swimming pools, tennis courts, club house, greenbelt trail, playground parks etc. Easy access to US59/ i69, Hwy 90, Hwy 6 etc. Six minutes to Memorial Herman Hospital and H-E-B supermarket in RiverPark shopping Center. Close to Costco, Trader Joe and

Key facts

• Swimming pools
• Tennis courts
• New vinyl floor

Tags

• NEW VINYL FLOOR
• CORIAN COUNTERTOP
• RENOVATED BATHROOM SHOWERS
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• SWIMMING POOLS
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $305k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 553 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,996
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
546 Ivy Cross Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,236 (+7%)	2mo	$365,000	$163	81
542 Ivy Cross Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,336 (+12%)	1mo	$445,000	$190	71
4815 Knights Branch Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,281 (+9%)	0mo	$328,000	$144	67
502 Calloway Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,988 (-5%)	6mo	$339,000	$171	62
1110 Kerri Ct	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,265 (+8%)	4mo	$336,000	$148	60
818 Presley Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,049 (-2%)	6mo	$335,000	$163	60
1114 Foxland Chase St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,315 (+11%)	5mo	$369,000	$159	51
1111 Cambrian Park Ct	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,265 (+8%)	8mo	$409,999	$181	50
918 Featherbrook Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,251 (+8%)	2mo	$311,000	$138	48
1210 Cambrian Park Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,265 (+8%)	6mo	$349,999	$155	48
4415 Casey Cir	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,336 (+12%)	4mo	$388,000	$166	41
214 Indian Summer Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,813 (-13%)	4mo	$337,000	$186	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-32,754
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-26,126
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77479

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$663 /mo · $7,959/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$775
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,190

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4315 Trailwood Dr Sugar Land, TX	4.0	2.5	2250	$5,800	$2.58	13d	1	0.69mi
107 High Meadows Dr Sugar Land, TX	4.0	3.0	2619	$2,600	$0.99	44d	1	0.98mi
1919 Canyon Crest Dr Sugar Land, TX	4.0	2.0	2478	$2,400	$0.97	44d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $102 · $1,224/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Pending 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Pending 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $310,000 Pending 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $310,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $310,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $310,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-14
   historical
10. 2026-05-04
    price $325,000
11. 2026-03-23
    price $335,000
12. 2026-01-08
    listed $345,000 Active
13. 2026-01-08
    historical
14. 2025-12-23
    status Active
15. 2025-12-23
    status Pending
16. 2025-10-27
    listed $345,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,959 · $663/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,959 · $663/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$7,959
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,542
• − Management: −$3,542
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable income: $70
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17
• After-tax cash flow: $4,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sugar Land

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1758

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugar Land, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 168,209
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 92,221
• Household income: $156,735
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1207.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 47% White 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Other Indo-European 16% Chinese 13% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.96%
• Current HPI: 227.7544
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $345,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,959 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.