411 S Divisioon St · Odessa, WA 99159

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

Built 1915 8,782 sqft lot $132/sqft · 17% below area Est $192k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming property presents an excellent opportunity for both first-time homebuyers and savvy investors. Its prime location and desirable features make it an attractive option in today's market. The property boasts a 2-bed, 1-bath home, which includes 3 new mini-splits for heating and cooling. A big kitchen and primary bedroom with a large walk in shower. The kitchen, living room, and front bedroom all have newer laminate flooring. The property features a spacious, large storage shed designed to accommodate extensive storage needs, providing practical space solutions for various belongings. The backyard boasts an attractive, well-designed deck for out door living. The front of the house

Key facts

• Well designed deck
• New mini splits
• Prime location

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• NEW MINI SPLITS
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• WELL DESIGNED DECK
• NEW TREX COMPOSITE FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#263 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Odessa School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #166 of 291 in WA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: P C Jantz Elementary (124 students, 53% FRL); Odessa High School (112 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $159k implies a 368% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,758 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,940
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -17.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 E 3Rd Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,247 (+4%)	8mo	$195,777	$157	75
8 W 3rd St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (-6%)	8mo	$167,500	$149	71
311 E 1st Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,134 (-6%)	16mo	$145,000	$128	60
202 N Division St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (-9%)	7mo	$150,000	$137	54
107 E 5th Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,370 (+14%)	18mo	$215,000	$157	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-33,294
• Equity at exit: $24,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-39,202
• Equity at exit: $15,139

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99159

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $136,196

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-84	+0% $-129	+5% $-174	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-171	+0% $-129	+5% $-87	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-49	-0.5pp $-89	base $-129	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    pricestatus $159,000 Active 134 DOM
19. 2026-03-23
    price $169,000
20. 2026-02-20
    price $189,000
21. 2026-01-16
    listed $199,000 Active
22. 2015-08-18
    soldstatus $34,000
23. 2014-08-12
    listed $34,500
24. 2007-03-20
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
25. 2007-01-10
    historical
26. 2007-01-08
    status
27. 2006-10-25
    listed $35,000
28. 2002-12-31
    historical
29. 2001-12-20
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$784/yr (+$65/mo · 101.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,015
• − Management: −$1,015
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$4,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $-483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa School District
• NCES district ID: 5306120
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,359
• Composite: 42.34/100
• National rank: #6948
• State rank: #166 of 291 in WA

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #9057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, WA
• Population (ZIP): 1,177

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,599 people
• By 2030: 9,146 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 8,298 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 7,683 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 6,790 · -29.3%
• By 2100: 6,029 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 23.6% · R 74.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+48.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Current HPI: 278.2447
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+382.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $169,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $189,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $199,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-18 Sold (MLS) $34,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-12 Listed $34,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-20 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-10 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-08 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-25 Listed $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-31 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-20 Listed $35,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $774 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.