99 Bushnell Rd · Waitsfield, VT 05673

$625,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2000 1.05 ac lot Est $444k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exalted Ky Koitzsch Alces Post and Beam Brothers Building Co true post and beam bright frame with energy efficient insulated panels studded with windows all around including jumbo diagonals at loft level to maximize the amazing Sugarbush to Mad River ski area views. Built in 2000 this handsome home offers so much Vermont flavor. Wide pine floors, wood paneling, gas faux wood stove, suspended lighting, master on main, two bedrooms up plus large vaulted loft. 240 sq ft sunset supreme deck, full unfinished bulkhead access basement, set back just far enough off the road. Lots of integrity yet compact and easy to heat. Build a garage or barn for more space. East Waitsfield divine, close to the Von Trapp Green House and exquisite Common Road for long walks and bike rides. 20 minutes to the lifts at Sugarbush and Mad River Glen, 45 to Stowe, 50 to Burlington. Wonderful year round home or escape, such a special combination of attractive elements. $335,000 pre-grievance assessment.

Key facts

• Sweeping views
• Solar panels
• Sunset deck

Tags

• DRAMATIC DIAGONAL WINDOWS
• SWEEPING VIEWS
• VAULTED OPEN LOFT
• SUNSET DECK
• NEW STANDING SEAM ROOF
• SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (dirt and gravel)
• Utilities: Private drilled well; Private 1000-gallon septic with leach field; 100 Amp service with circuit breakers (GMP); DSL internet; Phone service via Waitsfield Telecom
• Home design: Cape-style home; Existing structure; Built in 2000
• Construction: Post-and-beam construction; Wood exterior; Standing seam roof; Full foundation
• Exterior features: Ski area nearby; Scenic views; Public road frontage (116 feet); Dirt and gravel driveway; Surveyed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range (electric); Stove (gas); Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Softwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Gas unvented heater; Hot air heating; Stove heating; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Full unfinished concrete basement with bulkhead and walkout; Resort property
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $379k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.1% in Waitsfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#37 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zoned schools: Waitsfield Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #5 of 192 statewide, top 4%, 168 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$107k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $308k; list at $625k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $379,050 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.51%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $443,688
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Bushnell Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+6%)	8mo	$614,000	$364	79
124 Bushnell Rd	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+12%)	10mo	$434,000	$244	62
420 North Rd	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,728 (+8%)	22mo	$480,000	$278	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $270,544
• Equity at exit: $563,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $851,402
• Equity at exit: $1,214,238

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05673

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,790 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$552 /mo · $6,622/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$796
• Net cashflow: $-1,095

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,177

Max offer price $431,500

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $625,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $625,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $625,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $625,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $625,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $625,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $625,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $625,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,622 · $552/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,249 · $771/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,626/yr (+$219/mo · 39.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$6,622
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,639
• − Management: −$3,639
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$24,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Waitsfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #9382

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,465

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Danish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.14%
• Current HPI: 380.3453
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $625,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-04-25 Sold (MLS) $308,000 PrimeMLS
• 2016-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $308,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-03 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2016-02-19 Listed $325,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+22.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,622 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.