Roseman Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$430,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,731 sqft · SingleFamily · 168 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home offers desirable elements including a convenient study and a secluded owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom, both located on the first floor. An open plan showcases the main living space shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor are three additional bedrooms and a flexible game room that provides additional entertaining and leisure space.

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Lake
• Parks

Tags

• GOLF COURSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• LAKE
• PARKS
• SPORTS COURTS
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY

🏗️ New construction. The $430,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $600,358.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $431k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,114 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.11%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $600,358
• List price: $430,990
• Delta: -28.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31130 Crescent Hill Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5	2,695 (-1%)	0mo	$499,000	$185	80
32127 Morning Luster Ct	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,677 (-2%)	1mo	$389,990	$146	64
32223 Sunbeam Dr	0.61mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,697 (-1%)	0mo	$379,990	$141	62
4614 Sleepy Retreat Trl	0.39mi	4/3.5	3,046 (+12%)	1mo	$455,000	$149	62
4715 Cascade Waters Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,776 (+2%)	0mo	$554,900	$200	61
31131 Riley Heights Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,600 (-5%)	1mo	$464,806	$179	60
32210 Sunbeam Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,915 (+7%)	1mo	$450,990	$155	58
5707 Sunland Trl	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,867 (+5%)	1mo	$410,990	$143	57
32311 Sunbeam Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,915 (+7%)	1mo	$419,990	$144	56
32107 Morning Luster Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,402 (-12%)	1mo	$369,990	$154	54
5711 Sunland Trl	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,402 (-12%)	1mo	$391,990	$163	50
32215 Sunbeam Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,417 (-12%)	1mo	$364,990	$151	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-210,198
• Equity at exit: $89,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -89.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.10×
• Total profit: $-352,960
• Equity at exit: $51,908

Cash invested: $168,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$750 /mo · $9,005/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $-1,623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,336

Max offer price $365,464

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,208	-5% $-1,416	+0% $-1,623	+5% $-1,831	+10% $-2,038
Rent	-10% $-1,883	-5% $-1,753	+0% $-1,623	+5% $-1,494	+10% $-1,364
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,321	-0.5pp $-1,471	base $-1,623	+0.5pp $-1,779	+1.0pp $-1,937

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,090
• Closing costs: $18,011
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	22d	1	0.65mi
7302 New Pecan Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	4.0	2844	$3,299	$1.16	44d	1	0.78mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.5	2992	$3,637	$1.22	2d	1	0.84mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	13d	1	0.86mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	13d	1	1.28mi
33002 Franklin Brooks Dr Pattison, TX	4.0	3.5	3255	$4,385	$1.35	2d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,990 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $430,990 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $435,990 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $435,990 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,990 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,990 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $435,990 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $435,990 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $435,990 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $435,990 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $435,990 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $435,990 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $435,990 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,990 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-01-01
    listed $435,990 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    This new two-story home offers desirable elements including a convenient study and a secluded owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom, both located on the first floor. An open plan showcases the main living space shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor are three additional bedrooms and a flexible game room that provides additional entertaining and leisure space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,629
• − Property taxes: −$9,005
• − Insurance: −$3,799
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,150
• − Management: −$3,150
• − Depreciation: −$17,465
• Taxable loss: −$30,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,398
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listed $435,990 Zillow