12611 Fannin Pkwy · Tyler, TX 75708

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1999 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ideally located near the UT Tyler Medical Campus, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a generous 0.32-acre fully fenced lot, offering the perfect blend of privacy and city convenience. The interior features a spacious, clean layout that is ready for immediate occupancy, while the expansive backyard provides ample room for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining. This property is a rare find that accommodates all buyers, as it is eligible for any loan type—including FHA, VA, and conventional—and the owner is also offering flexible seller financing options. Book your showing today!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Expansive backyard
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Winona ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #539 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $39,985
• Equity at exit: $70,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $111,074
• Equity at exit: $121,564

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75708

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,055/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12277 State Highway 155 Tyler, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1392	$1,299	$0.93	13d	5	0.41mi
12336 Chapman Rd Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1395	$1,425	$1.02	21d	1	0.76mi
12547 Chapman Rd Unit M Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	904	$875	$0.97	44d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-01-12
    listed $125,000 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Ideally located near the UT Tyler Medical Campus, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a generous 0.32-acre fully fenced lot, offering the perfect blend of privacy and city convenience. The interior features a spacious, clean layout that is ready for immediate occupancy, while the expansive backyard provides ample room for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining. This property is a rare find that accommodates all buyers, as it is eligible for any loan type—including FHA, VA, and conventional—and the owner is also offering flexible seller financing options. Book your showing today!

17. 2025-12-29
    listed $125,000 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Ideally located near the UT Tyler Medical Campus, this move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a generous 0.32-acre fully fenced lot, offering the perfect blend of privacy and city convenience. The interior features a spacious, clean layout that is ready for immediate occupancy, while the expansive backyard provides ample room for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining. This property is a rare find that accommodates all buyers, as it is eligible for any loan type—including FHA, VA, and conventional—and the owner is also offering flexible seller financing options. Book your showing today!

18. 2024-08-20
    soldstatus
19. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus
20. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus
21. 2020-04-14
    soldstatus
22. 2020-03-23
    soldstatus
23. 2020-02-16
    listed $43,900
24. 2005-06-30
    soldstatus
25. 1997-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,055 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,232/yr (+$103/mo · 116.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,055
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$30
• After-tax cash flow: $2,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846230
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,761
• Composite: 28.98/100
• National rank: #6624
• State rank: #539 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 127,842
• Population (ZIP): 10,001

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 39% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 216.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+184.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $125,000 GTAR
• 2025-12-29 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-23 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2020-02-16 Listed $43,900 GTAR
• 2005-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,055 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.