423 N 5th St · Haines City, FL 33844

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1952 4,996 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HANDY MAN OR INVESTOR SPECIAL. RENTAL INVESTMENT

Key facts

• Natural light
• Serving window
• Storage shed

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• SERVING WINDOW
• STORAGE SHED
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Entry on one level
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Asphalt/paved road access; 50 x 100 lot dimensions

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($318/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $150k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,225 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-25,051
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-29,264
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,311/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $69	+0% $27	+5% $-16	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $-27	+0% $27	+5% $80	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $65	base $27	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
608 Claude Holmes SR Ave Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,350	$1.80	5d	1	0.05mi
325 N 5th St Unit 325-5 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$945	$1.26	16d	1	0.12mi
907 Center Ave Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	575	$999	$1.74	25d	1	0.22mi
35 N 6th St Unit 1 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	13d	1	0.44mi
1002 E St Unit 4 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$825	$1.91	25d	1	0.53mi
1002 E St Unit 4 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$825	$1.91	16d	1	0.53mi
1002 E St Unit 1 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$880	$1.76	21d	1	0.53mi
1800 N 12th St Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	25d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $150,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $160,000 Active
18. 2025-09-19
    soldstatus $97,000
19. 2025-09-11
    soldstatus $97,000 Closed 48-char remark

    Show marketing remark (48 chars)

    HANDY MAN OR INVESTOR SPECIAL. RENTAL INVESTMENT

20. 2025-07-31
    status Pending 48-char remark

    Show marketing remark (48 chars)

    HANDY MAN OR INVESTOR SPECIAL. RENTAL INVESTMENT

21. 2025-07-18
    listed $97,990 Active 48-char remark

    Show marketing remark (48 chars)

    HANDY MAN OR INVESTOR SPECIAL. RENTAL INVESTMENT

22. 2020-10-07
    soldstatus $90,000
23. 2020-10-01
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    * * Back on the market - previous buyers financing fell through * * This beautiful home has recently been renovated with a new updated kitchen, all new electrical wiring and panels, new flooring, new AC units and renovated bathroom. This is a 2/1 and has an additional room and porch. This would make a wonderful starter home or investment property. Seller just added a termite bond to the property.

24. 2020-09-15
    status Pending 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    * * Back on the market - previous buyers financing fell through * * This beautiful home has recently been renovated with a new updated kitchen, all new electrical wiring and panels, new flooring, new AC units and renovated bathroom. This is a 2/1 and has an additional room and porch. This would make a wonderful starter home or investment property. Seller just added a termite bond to the property.

25. 2020-09-03
    status Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    * * Back on the market - previous buyers financing fell through * * This beautiful home has recently been renovated with a new updated kitchen, all new electrical wiring and panels, new flooring, new AC units and renovated bathroom. This is a 2/1 and has an additional room and porch. This would make a wonderful starter home or investment property. Seller just added a termite bond to the property.

26. 2020-09-01
    status Pending 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    * * Back on the market - previous buyers financing fell through * * This beautiful home has recently been renovated with a new updated kitchen, all new electrical wiring and panels, new flooring, new AC units and renovated bathroom. This is a 2/1 and has an additional room and porch. This would make a wonderful starter home or investment property. Seller just added a termite bond to the property.

27. 2020-08-30
    status Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    * * Back on the market - previous buyers financing fell through * * This beautiful home has recently been renovated with a new updated kitchen, all new electrical wiring and panels, new flooring, new AC units and renovated bathroom. This is a 2/1 and has an additional room and porch. This would make a wonderful starter home or investment property. Seller just added a termite bond to the property.

28. 2020-06-19
    status Pending 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    * * Back on the market - previous buyers financing fell through * * This beautiful home has recently been renovated with a new updated kitchen, all new electrical wiring and panels, new flooring, new AC units and renovated bathroom. This is a 2/1 and has an additional room and porch. This would make a wonderful starter home or investment property. Seller just added a termite bond to the property.

29. 2020-06-05
    listed $90,000 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    * * Back on the market - previous buyers financing fell through * * This beautiful home has recently been renovated with a new updated kitchen, all new electrical wiring and panels, new flooring, new AC units and renovated bathroom. This is a 2/1 and has an additional room and porch. This would make a wonderful starter home or investment property. Seller just added a termite bond to the property.

30. 2019-07-03
    status Pending
31. 2019-07-03
    historical
32. 2019-06-29
    listed $39,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,311
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+310.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-11 Sold (MLS) $97,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Listed $97,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-01 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-05 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-29 Listed $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,311 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.