15403 Maple Terrace Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$274,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · Land · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience easy, stylish living in the Maple floorplan at Sweetwater Ridge! This spacious one-story home is ideal for relaxing and entertaining, with a private dining room, large family room, and an upgraded kitchen featuring granite countertops, Whirlpool appliances (including a refrigerator and built-in microwave), luxury vinyl plank flooring, and rich wood cabinetry. A breakfast bar and extended covered patio offer great gathering spaces—and with no back neighbors, you'll enjoy extra peace and privacy. The private owner’s retreat includes a soaker tub, step-in shower, and generous walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide flexible space for guests

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee $480; Community amenities include dog park, lake/pond, picnic area, playground, park, and trails; Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (built 2026); Single-story layout (all main rooms on first floor)
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Private yard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 14); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 14); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 16 x 9); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on first floor (approx. 8 x 9); Additional bathroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Ventilation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on first floor (approx. 6 x 6); Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $274,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $248,947.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $209,067 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,947
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: 10.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,523
• Equity at exit: $37,119

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,107
• Equity at exit: $21,524

Cash invested: $69,705 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,911

Max offer price $248,947

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $212	+0% $142	+5% $72	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $59	+0% $142	+5% $225	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $205	base $142	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,237
• Closing costs: $7,468
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$2,240	$1.37	0d	1	0.18mi
15648 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,930	$1.08	0d	1	0.19mi
15642 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.19mi
15652 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,135	$0.97	0d	1	0.19mi
15667 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,930	$1.08	0d	1	0.19mi
15663 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $274,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,830
15. 2026-05-13
    status Active 881-char remark
16. 2026-05-08
    historical 881-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $274,900 Active 881-char remark
18. 2025-06-12
    historical $1,945
19. 2025-06-07
    listed $1,945
20. 2025-06-06
    historical $1,945
21. 2025-05-06
    listed $1,945
22. 2025-03-09
    historical $1,995
23. 2025-03-08
    listed $1,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,031 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,305/yr (+$359/mo · 593.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,945
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,242
• Taxable loss: −$2,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $2,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Rental Removed $1,855 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $1,855 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,830 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Rental Removed $1,945 BUILDIUM
• 2025-06-07 Listed for Rent $1,945 BUILDIUM
• 2025-06-06 Rental Removed $1,945 HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed for Rent $1,945 HARMLS
• 2025-03-09 Rental Removed $1,995 HARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed for Rent $1,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.