260 W Harbord St · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1962 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home with all the bells and whistles.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Detached workshop
• Glass-enclosed porch

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NO HOA
• GLASS-ENCLOSED PORCH
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• FENCED YARD
• LANDSCAPED GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-1A
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No homeowners association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport (2 spaces); Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Northeast facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area: 1,560 living area (public records); total building area 2,382 (owner)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Front porch; Rear porch; Private mailbox; Storage; Shed(s); Workshop; Mature landscaping with fruit trees and oak trees; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room and dining room combo; Split-bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($414/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Alfred Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 821 students, 49% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $245k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,040 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,479
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-29,707
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,519/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,127

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 S Nekoma Ave Lake Alfred, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,095	$1.03	10d	1	0.09mi
505 Interlock St Lake Alfred, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,919	$1.33	2d	1	0.74mi
234 Cattail Way Lake Alfred, FL	4.0	2.0	1689	$1,911	$1.13	14d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $245,000
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $250,000 Active
4. 2021-06-06
   listed $219,500 Active
5. 2013-05-16
   soldstatus $110,500
6. 2013-05-09
   soldstatus $110,500 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   Well maintained home with all the bells and whistles.

7. 2013-03-19
   listed $112,000 53-char remark

   Show marketing remark (53 chars)

   Well maintained home with all the bells and whistles.

8. 2002-03-19
   soldstatus $79,900
9. 1993-11-08
   soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,519 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,519 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,519
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$892
• After-tax cash flow: $1,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Alfred, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+329.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-06 Listed $219,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $110,500 Public Records
• 2013-05-09 Sold (MLS) $110,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-19 Listed $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1993-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,519 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.