301 Candela Cir · Sacramento, CA 95835

$475,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,541 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2006 2,117 sqft lot $308/sqft · 11% below area Est $534k · 11% under $91/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the highly desirable Westlake community, this beautifully maintained home offers modern comfort and effortless style in the heart of Natomas. A light-filled entry with soaring ceilings welcomes you into an open-concept great room featuring new laminate flooring, a cozy tile-faced fireplace, and seamless access to the private patio perfect for indoor-outdoor California living. Fresh interior paint throughout creates a bright, clean, move-in-ready feel. The kitchen showcases rich wood cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, updated recessed lighting, and a spacious pantry closet. Upstairs, the generous primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with room for a sit

Key facts

• 2,117 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with monthly fee for grounds maintenance; Community park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with interior access; 2 garage spaces; Garage faces front; Driveway slopes downslope
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt electric; Cable available; Internet available; Irrigation from private district
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Built in 2006; 2-story home; Street entrance on main level
• Construction: Tile roof; Detached construction
• Exterior features: Wood fence in back yard; Low-maintenance, regularly shaped lot; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Pantry closet; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast area; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Master suite includes a sitting area
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with shower stall, double sinks, tile, tub, tub with shower over, and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Living room with cathedral/vaulted great room layout; Gas log fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper floor inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (44.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (39.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($468k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,695 (44.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.71%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $534,207
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -11.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4213 Hovnanian Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-2%)	2mo	$459,000	$304	74
4301 Hovnanian Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-2%)	5mo	$390,000	$258	72
4040 Arco Del Paso Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,433 (-7%)	4mo	$454,500	$317	68
4425 Danube River Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,433 (-7%)	4mo	$483,700	$338	63
4101 Hovnanian Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	2mo	$442,000	$315	62
4009 Crete Island Ln	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,433 (-7%)	5mo	$415,000	$290	61
3700 Hovnanian Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,763 (+14%)	0mo	$515,000	$292	61
4187 Hovnanian Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	4mo	$425,000	$303	61
20 Baffin Bay Ct	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,763 (+14%)	4mo	$515,000	$292	57
4118 Adriatic Sea Way	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,453 (-6%)	2mo	$460,000	$317	55
335 Suez Canal Ln	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (+10%)	6mo	$440,000	$258	50
4207 Adriatic Sea Way	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,763 (+14%)	2mo	$509,000	$289	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $151,564
• Equity at exit: $399,958

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $492,633
• Equity at exit: $834,407

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$565 /mo · $6,782/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-1,202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,393

Max offer price $262,695

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-933	-5% $-1,067	+0% $-1,202	+5% $-1,336	+10% $-1,471
Rent	-10% $-1,429	-5% $-1,315	+0% $-1,202	+5% $-1,088	+10% $-975
Rate	-1.0pp $-963	-0.5pp $-1,081	base $-1,202	+0.5pp $-1,325	+1.0pp $-1,450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	16d	1	0.03mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	45d	1	0.05mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy #3008 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,250	$1.73	45d	1	0.29mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1214	$2,250	$1.85	3d	3	0.34mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	45d	1	0.43mi
4355 Adriatic Sea Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,800	$1.59	0d	1	0.50mi
4450 El Centro Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,348	$2.61	0d	11	0.53mi
4237 Malta Island St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$2,895	$1.48	45d	1	0.66mi
130 Penhow Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1618	$2,400	$1.48	0d	1	0.67mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.70mi
4118 Adriatic Sea Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1593	$2,995	$1.88	19d	1	0.76mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	25d	1	0.79mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	4d	1	0.84mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	45d	1	0.86mi
4045 Neapolis Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,800	$1.55	4d	1	0.87mi
4138 Hydo Lake Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1954	$3,000	$1.54	19d	1	0.90mi
4032 Vittoria Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,695	$1.68	0d	1	0.91mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	45d	1	0.93mi
101 Lily Bay Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1950	$2,900	$1.49	22d	1	0.93mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	9d	1	0.97mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	45d	2	1.06mi
17 Advantage Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1394	$2,595	$1.86	45d	1	1.07mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,595	$1.41	0d	1	1.08mi
2957 Nimes Ln Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	1920	$2,795	$1.46	45d	1	1.13mi
3301 Arena Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	952	$2,725	$2.86	0d	1	1.14mi
5301 E Commerce Way #34103 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1774	$3,000	$1.69	0d	1	1.22mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	25d	2	1.25mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	18d	3	1.25mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	3d	1	1.29mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.30mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $475,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $475,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $475,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $475,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2022-03-16
   soldstatus $505,000
6. 2013-07-24
   soldstatus $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,782 · $565/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,782 · $565/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$6,782
• − Insurance: −$3,878
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,757
• − Management: −$2,757
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$23,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,576
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Rental Removed $2,750 REDFIN
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $2,750 REDFIN
• 2026-06-04 Listed for Rent $2,650 REDFIN
• 2022-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $505,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,782 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.