835 Sarasota Shore Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$380,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 419 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $148/sqft · 27% below area Est $518k · 27% under $92/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER – BRING ALL OFFERS! Seller is relocating and ready to sell quickly. This like-new home, built just 2 years ago, has been gently lived in and beautifully maintained. Features include modern finishes, a bright and functional layout, and all appliances included high-end smart refrigerator with a built-in screen that connects to YouTube. All appliances are just 2 years old and in excellent condition, including the washer and dryer. Some furniture is also available at a great price, newly beautiful tile for a more spacious and elegant backyard enjoy outdoor living with the extended patio experience—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a desirable and growing community within the 77493 zip code, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent value. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Katy El (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 682 students, 26% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4013 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 11775% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,023 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.44%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $517,591
• List price: $380,000
• Delta: -26.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
837 Coronado Terrace Ln	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,581 (+0%)	2mo	$329,000	$127	87
952 Malibu Shore Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,492 (-3%)	2mo	$335,000	$134	83
765 Ocean Palms Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,496 (-3%)	1mo	$375,000	$150	80
904 Pismo Creek Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,396 (-7%)	2mo	$350,000	$146	79
673 Cape Capri Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,620 (+2%)	2mo	$445,000	$170	78
2529 Allegretto Sea Dr	0.43mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,542 (-1%)	1mo	$389,990	$153	68
3035 Avalos Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (-1%)	2mo	$352,990	$139	62
3044 Eagle Bay Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,331 (-9%)	0mo	$366,990	$157	61
3005 Navy Hill Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,331 (-9%)	1mo	$363,990	$156	58
3024 Alder Flower Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,322 (-10%)	2mo	$359,990	$155	55
4605 Green Arobol Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,430 (-5%)	2mo	$339,990	$140	53
1028 Open Sky Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,448 (-5%)	2mo	$400,000	$163	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-144,167
• Equity at exit: $56,659

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.37×
• Total profit: $-252,625
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 157 active · 72 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $389,990 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 50 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +25.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 4013
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$1,200 /mo · $14,401/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-1,170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,443

Max offer price $288,023

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-955	-5% $-1,062	+0% $-1,170	+5% $-1,277	+10% $-1,385
Rent	-10% $-1,404	-5% $-1,287	+0% $-1,170	+5% $-1,053	+10% $-936
Rate	-1.0pp $-978	-0.5pp $-1,073	base $-1,170	+0.5pp $-1,268	+1.0pp $-1,368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
808 Marisol Bay Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,695	$1.11	36d	1	0.07mi
1008 Caramel Shores Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$3,100	$1.24	39d	1	0.38mi
1301 Tan Gable Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2615	$3,200	$1.22	3d	1	0.41mi
1024 Greenshank Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2390	$2,900	$1.21	7d	1	0.43mi
584 Santa Rosa Hills Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2708	$3,200	$1.18	49d	1	0.46mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,499	$1.16	87d	1	0.46mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	139d	1	0.46mi
550 Long Beach Bay Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.5	2788	$3,200	$1.15	48d	1	0.51mi
550 Long Beach Bay Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.5	2788	$3,200	$1.15	39d	1	0.51mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$3,312	$1.69	0d	76	0.52mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	74d	1	0.63mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	139d	1	0.64mi
4985 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2816	$3,150	$1.12	39d	1	0.71mi
4985 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2816	$3,150	$1.12	59d	1	0.71mi
2901 Apple Rose Ln Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2884	$3,200	$1.11	85d	1	0.72mi
2901 Apple Rose Ln Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2884	$3,200	$1.11	39d	1	0.72mi
2901 Apple Rose Ln Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2884	$3,200	$1.11	69d	1	0.72mi
2901 Apple Rose Ln Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2884	$3,200	$1.11	88d	1	0.72mi
2845 Shimmer Edge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	2362	$2,249	$0.95	90d	1	0.73mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	68d	1	0.75mi
1500 Sunrise Gables Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	3630	$3,995	$1.10	33d	1	0.75mi
2972 Golden Dust Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,795	$1.46	18d	1	0.76mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	120d	1	0.76mi
2920 Eden Lake Ln Unit NA Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	2178	$2,475	$1.14	43d	1	0.77mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	108d	1	0.78mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	0.80mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	0.83mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$2,395	$1.11	20d	1	0.86mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	108d	1	0.87mi
3029 Sorrento Hill Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$2,695	$1.48	0d	1	0.90mi
3081 Sorrento Hill Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	0d	1	0.93mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	0.95mi
3083 Sunset Glory Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2279	$2,300	$1.01	89d	1	1.01mi
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,650	$1.10	74d	1	1.01mi
28625 Clay Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,000	$1.07	139d	1	1.05mi
4806 Sand Clouds Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,095	$1.12	48d	1	1.11mi
4607 Dana Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2152	$2,500	$1.16	6d	1	1.13mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	59d	24	1.15mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1890	$2,800	$1.48	0d	29	1.15mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	48d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $380,000 Active 419 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $380,000 Active 418 DOM
3. 2026-02-10
   price $380,000 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER – BRING ALL OFFERS! Seller is relocating and ready to sell quickly. This like-new home, built just 2 years ago, has been gently lived in and beautifully maintained. Features include modern finishes, a bright and functional layout, and all appliances included high-end smart refrigerator with a built-in screen that connects to YouTube. All appliances are just 2 years old and in excellent condition, including the washer and dryer. Some furniture is also available at a great price, newly beautiful tile for a more spacious and elegant backyard enjoy outdoor living with the extended patio experience—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a desirable and growing community within the 77493 zip code, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent value. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-01-10
   listed $3,200
5. 2025-12-23
   price $390,000 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER – BRING ALL OFFERS! Seller is relocating and ready to sell quickly. This like-new home, built just 2 years ago, has been gently lived in and beautifully maintained. Features include modern finishes, a bright and functional layout, and all appliances included high-end smart refrigerator with a built-in screen that connects to YouTube. All appliances are just 2 years old and in excellent condition, including the washer and dryer. Some furniture is also available at a great price, newly beautiful tile for a more spacious and elegant backyard enjoy outdoor living with the extended patio experience—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a desirable and growing community within the 77493 zip code, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent value. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

6. 2025-05-12
   price $400,000 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER – BRING ALL OFFERS! Seller is relocating and ready to sell quickly. This like-new home, built just 2 years ago, has been gently lived in and beautifully maintained. Features include modern finishes, a bright and functional layout, and all appliances included high-end smart refrigerator with a built-in screen that connects to YouTube. All appliances are just 2 years old and in excellent condition, including the washer and dryer. Some furniture is also available at a great price, newly beautiful tile for a more spacious and elegant backyard enjoy outdoor living with the extended patio experience—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a desirable and growing community within the 77493 zip code, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent value. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

7. 2025-05-02
   price $439,000 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER – BRING ALL OFFERS! Seller is relocating and ready to sell quickly. This like-new home, built just 2 years ago, has been gently lived in and beautifully maintained. Features include modern finishes, a bright and functional layout, and all appliances included high-end smart refrigerator with a built-in screen that connects to YouTube. All appliances are just 2 years old and in excellent condition, including the washer and dryer. Some furniture is also available at a great price, newly beautiful tile for a more spacious and elegant backyard enjoy outdoor living with the extended patio experience—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a desirable and growing community within the 77493 zip code, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent value. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

8. 2025-04-08
   listed $449,000 Active 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER – BRING ALL OFFERS! Seller is relocating and ready to sell quickly. This like-new home, built just 2 years ago, has been gently lived in and beautifully maintained. Features include modern finishes, a bright and functional layout, and all appliances included high-end smart refrigerator with a built-in screen that connects to YouTube. All appliances are just 2 years old and in excellent condition, including the washer and dryer. Some furniture is also available at a great price, newly beautiful tile for a more spacious and elegant backyard enjoy outdoor living with the extended patio experience—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in a desirable and growing community within the 77493 zip code, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent value. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your showing today!

9. 2024-02-26
   soldstatus Sold 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   Empire Communities - New Construction - 4 Bedroom one story with three full baths. This spacious Most popular floor plan features a gourmet Kitchen with a 10 X 8 Working Kitchen Island with a grand view of the family room overlooking the back yard. Spacious Primary bedroom with 3 large windows overlooking the backyard space. Luxurious Primary bath features soaker tub with 2 sinks and large walk-in closet. Check out this hidden Gem today. Approximate March completion.

10. 2024-01-18
    status Pending 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Empire Communities - New Construction - 4 Bedroom one story with three full baths. This spacious Most popular floor plan features a gourmet Kitchen with a 10 X 8 Working Kitchen Island with a grand view of the family room overlooking the back yard. Spacious Primary bedroom with 3 large windows overlooking the backyard space. Luxurious Primary bath features soaker tub with 2 sinks and large walk-in closet. Check out this hidden Gem today. Approximate March completion.

11. 2023-12-18
    listed $451,120 Active 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Empire Communities - New Construction - 4 Bedroom one story with three full baths. This spacious Most popular floor plan features a gourmet Kitchen with a 10 X 8 Working Kitchen Island with a grand view of the family room overlooking the back yard. Spacious Primary bedroom with 3 large windows overlooking the backyard space. Luxurious Primary bath features soaker tub with 2 sinks and large walk-in closet. Check out this hidden Gem today. Approximate March completion.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $14,401 · $1,200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,401 · $1,200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$14,401
• − Insurance: −$2,698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,844
• − Management: −$2,844
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$20,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,965
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,845–$38,535 screening

This like-new home, built just 2 years ago, is in excellent condition with modern finishes and appliances. It's move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Inspect and clean gutters — Prevent water damage and improve home's appearance ↑
• Rental Replace outdoor lighting — Attracts tenants with well-lit exterior ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's modern appeal and convenience ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Katy El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $380,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed for Rent $3,200 HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $390,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $400,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $449,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Listed $451,120 HARMLS

Property tax history

+113.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,401 · +22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.