505 Don Ln · Itasca, TX 76055

$247,766

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 2025 5,663 sqft lot Est $218k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21130165 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for time an

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,000 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,109
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Don Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,001 (0%)	11mo	$207,490	$104	86
528 Don Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,001 (0%)	11mo	$214,990	$107	85
616. S Files St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (-2%)	2mo	$359,900	$184	78
306 S College St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-2%)	6mo	$214,000	$109	65
101 Circle Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,012 (+0%)	11mo	$219,900	$109	64
607 E Main St	0.58mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,130 (+6%)	2mo	$310,000	$146	53
501 S College St	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+15%)	4mo	$198,000	$86	49
900 E Main St	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,084 (+4%)	24mo	$284,800	$137	37
305 E Adams St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (-14%)	23mo	$300,000	$173	29
109 E North St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (+10%)	22mo	$172,000	$78	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $113,964
• Equity at exit: $223,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $352,174
• Equity at exit: $481,355

Cash invested: $69,374 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,716/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,167

Max offer price $200,050

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-244	+0% $-330	+5% $-415	+10% $-501
Rent	-10% $-468	-5% $-399	+0% $-330	+5% $-261	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-267	base $-330	+0.5pp $-394	+1.0pp $-459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,942
• Closing costs: $7,433
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	0d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-10
   listed $247,766 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,879
• − Property taxes: −$3,716
• − Insurance: −$1,239
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$7,208
• Taxable loss: −$8,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $247,766 NTREIS