428 E Osage Ave · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$465,000

None bd · None ba · 2,286 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1980

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Now's your chance to own a solid triplex in a high demand area! Two units have its own adorable honeycomb fireplace & all have W/ D hookup, and spacious, fenced private yards. Roof is newer (installed in 2022) and A/C's are newer. One unit is 2 bed, 1 bath, One is 2 bed, 2 bath, and the third unit is 1 bed, 1 bath (all occupied). This property offers a strong value-add opportunity through both interior and exterior renovations. Each unit is equipped with its own washer/dryer hookup, and the property is individually metered for electricity. Owner is also selling a similar Triplex next door (404 E. Osage - MLS 7016776) and would love to sell them together, if possible, but it's not a d

Key facts

• Newer a c
• Newer roof
• Honeycomb fireplace

Tags

• HONEYCOMB FIREPLACE
• W D HOOKUP
• FENCED PRIVATE YARDS
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER A C

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3 open parking spaces; On-street parking
• Utilities: SRP electric; Public sewer; City franchise water
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Board and batten siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof; 1 building
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; No community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Free-standing electric oven
• Flooring: Tile
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric heating
• Interior features: Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2bd/1ba + 1×2bd/2ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $134/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $396k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,956/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 305% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($458k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $465k implies a 794% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $395,600 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.70%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-55,616
• Equity at exit: $69,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-38,837
• Equity at exit: $40,205

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 28.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$831
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,447

Max offer price $465,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $665	-5% $533	+0% $402	+5% $270	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $245	+0% $402	+5% $558	+10% $714
Rate	-1.0pp $636	-0.5pp $520	base $402	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $159

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,352
1× unit	2	2	$1,352
1× unit	1	1	$1,252
Total (3 units)			$3,956

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1807 E 36th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2261	$3,175	$1.40	24d	1	1.26mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	4d	1	1.26mi
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	1.30mi
2213 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2332	$2,385	$1.02	3d	1	1.43mi
2217 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2260	$2,010	$0.89	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $465,000 Active
3. 1989-06-20
   soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,069 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,974/yr (+$165/mo · 180.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,798
• − Management: −$3,798
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$748
• After-tax cash flow: $5,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+794.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $465,000 ARMLS
• 1989-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,095 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.