1779 Shirey Rd · Manchester, GA 31816

$162,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,187 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1945 2.14 ac lot Est $123k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the hustle and enjoy quiet country living in peaceful Chalybeate Springs. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on 2.14 acres outside city limits of Manchester, offering privacy, open space, and a relaxed lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a comfortable layout featuring a dedicated laundry room and a large walk-in closet off the primary bedroom, providing plenty of storage and convenience. The home also features new windows and a new front door, adding both efficiency and curb appeal. Step outside to the welcoming screened-in porch with plenty of room for gardening, outdoor activities, or simply enjoying nature, this property offers the best of country living. Move-in ready and sold as-is. If you're looking for a quiet retreat with acreage, privacy, and practical features, this home is a must-see.

Key facts

• Acreage
• Screened-in porch
• New front door

Tags

• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FRONT DOOR
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• ACREAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family house; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 1945; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level living; Public-record living area of 1187; Den
• Laundry & utility: Mud room; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $162k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#525 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary School (math 28% / reading 22%, grade F, #745 of 1,228 statewide, top 61%, 756 students, 99% FRL); Manchester Middle School (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #321 of 470 statewide, top 69%, 313 students, 96% FRL); Manchester High School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #128 of 424 statewide, top 30%, 403 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,685 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,448
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Lake Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,241 (+4%)	23mo	$129,000	$104	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $93,975
• Equity at exit: $145,942

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $272,183
• Equity at exit: $314,730

Cash invested: $45,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31816

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,721/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,342

Max offer price $162,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $136	+0% $90	+5% $45	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $33	+0% $90	+5% $148	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $132	base $90	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,500
• Closing costs: $4,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $162,000 Under Contract 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,000 New 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,000 New 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,000 New 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $162,000 New 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $162,000 New 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,000 New 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,000 New 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $162,000 New 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,075
• − Property taxes: −$1,721
• − Insurance: −$810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$4,713
• Taxable loss: −$1,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$392
• After-tax cash flow: $1,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meriwether County
• NCES district ID: 1303630
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,287
• Composite: 16.59/100
• National rank: #9175
• State rank: #144 of 174 in GA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #23555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,872

Population outlook (Meriwether County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,554 people
• By 2030: 18,482 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 16,204 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 14,030 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 9,539 · -51.2%
• By 2100: 6,136 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 48% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Meriwether

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 37.1% · R 62.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+5.7 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.75%
• Current HPI: 298.3716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+710.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $162,000 CBOR
• 2026-06-01 Listed $162,000 GAMLS
• 2022-04-13 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CBOR
• 2021-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $73,856 Public Records
• 2021-01-13 Listed $115,900 CBOR
• 1998-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,721 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.