ABERNATHY Plan · Glen St. Mary, FL 32040

$270,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily · 292 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to our Abernathy plan. This modern space perfectly blends comfort and style with open concept living throughout the large kitchen, family and dining areas. The kitchen comes equipped with stainless steel appliances, white shaker cabinets and granite countertops. The private owner's suite includes an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks and a walk in closet. The two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office.

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Walk in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-03
• Financial info: List price $270,990

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan; Addressed in Glen Saint Mary, FL
• Exterior features: Living area listed as 1290

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model: ABERNATHY

🏗️ New construction. The $270,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,810.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $271k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.0% in Glen St. Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baker (town): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #28 of 73 in FL (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Baker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baker County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,810
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10349 Greystone Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	4mo	$243,888	$189	90
10370 Greystone Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	3mo	$268,000	$208	90
10315 Greystone Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	7mo	$225,000	$174	90
10328 Greystone Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	7mo	$225,000	$174	88
10292 Greystone Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	6mo	$259,990	$184	75
10267 Greystone Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	11mo	$267,990	$189	74
10382 Greystone Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	2mo	$270,990	$191	74
10334 Greystone Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	5mo	$237,888	$168	73
10076 River Oak Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-8%)	18mo	$129,900	$110	56
6375 E Thomas Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+5%)	23mo	$315,900	$233	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,388
• Equity at exit: $36,353

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,824
• Equity at exit: $21,080

Cash invested: $68,267 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32040

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,279
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,657/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,133

Max offer price $243,810

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,952
• Closing costs: $7,314
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $270,990 Active 292 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,990 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,990 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,990 Active 289 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,990 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $270,990 Active 286 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $270,990 Active 285 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,990 Active 282 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,990 Active 281 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,990 Active 280 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,990 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,990 Active 275 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,990 Active 274 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,990 Active 273 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $270,990 Active 272 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,657
• − Property taxes: −$3,657
• − Insurance: −$1,219
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$7,093
• Taxable loss: −$1,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$313
• After-tax cash flow: $2,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baker
• NCES district ID: 1200060
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,301
• Composite: 43.67/100
• National rank: #2958
• State rank: #28 of 73 in FL

Livability — Glen St. Mary

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,754

Population outlook (Baker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,607 people
• By 2030: 27,452 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 26,637 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 25,103 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 19,576 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 11,664 · -57.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 13.2% · R 86.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -57.4pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+70.2 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+58.6 2008: R+57.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.72%
• Current HPI: 216.151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B