64510 E Canyon Shadows Ln · Saddlebrooke, AZ 85739

$315,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1990 8,600 sqft lot Est $379k · 17% under $263/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An original Toltec model offering 1535 sq ft of living space. This territorial-style two-bedroom, two-bath residence offers ample opportunity for personal customization. The double-door entry leads to a spacious great room with a fireplace, perfect for enjoying SaddleBrooke's cooler evenings. The kitchen features abundant white Euro cabinetry and opens to a breakfast nook with additional storage. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath with a double vanity, walk-in closet, and direct access to the covered patio and hot tub. A guest bedroom and bathroom provide comfortable accommodations for visitors. Outside, a large, fully enclosed yard with a wrap-around covered patio creates an ideal

Key facts

• 8,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot has shrubs, front sprinklers, north/south exposure; Paved road maintained by HOA; Irregular lot shape
• HOA & community: Part of HOA (SS HOA 1); HOA semi-annual fee; HOA transfer fee applies; HOA covers common area maintenance and street maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball, volleyball court, putting green, basketball court, fitness center, recreation center, paved streets

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and cabinets; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Wrought-iron security door; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected; Pre-wired for telephone lines
• Home design: Single-family residence, Shawnee model; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Built-Up roof
• Exterior features: Covered paver patio; Block fencing; Spa/Hot Tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range
• Bedrooms: One-level layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pre-wired for satellite dish; Gas fireplace in living room; Smoke detectors; Wrought-iron security door
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($992/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in Saddlebrooke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#168 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oracle Elementary District (4444) (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #159 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $315k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $379,145
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64262 E Chippewa Ct	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,529 (-0%)	14mo	$285,000	$186	74
38230 S Elbow Bend Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	0mo	$315,000	$197	72
64304 E Round Robin Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,364 (-11%)	6mo	$344,000	$252	69
38289 S Silverwood Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,387 (-10%)	10mo	$282,000	$203	64
37970 S Elbow Bend Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	3mo	$345,000	$216	63
64442 E Galveston Ln	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,436 (-6%)	10mo	$355,000	$247	60
63842 E Via De Desconso	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+1%)	13mo	$525,000	$339	60
63902 E Condalia Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+1%)	14mo	$505,000	$326	59
63812 E High Point Ln	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,449 (-6%)	5mo	$325,000	$224	57
38240 S Mountain Site Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,734 (+13%)	9mo	$330,000	$190	53
65410 E Rolling Hills Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,677 (+9%)	5mo	$422,982	$252	48
37931 S Desert Bluff Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,458 (-5%)	11mo	$420,000	$288	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-45,708
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-32,735
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85739

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$263
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,812

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $172	+0% $83	+5% $-7	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-33	+0% $83	+5% $198	+10% $313
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $163	base $83	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38325 S Mountain Site Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	2218	$2,975	$1.34	18d	1	0.32mi
38973 S Tranquil Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1448	$2,800	$1.93	25d	1	0.53mi
38040 S Elbow Bend Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1810	$2,400	$1.33	25d	1	0.53mi
38844 S Carefree Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1740	$3,500	$2.01	19d	1	0.54mi
64576 E Wind Ridge Cir Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,700	$1.75	25d	1	0.55mi
38045 S Elbow Bend Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2141	$3,100	$1.45	25d	1	0.56mi
64528 E Wind Ridge Cir Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	19d	1	0.57mi
63692 E Vacation Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1709	$2,800	$1.64	11d	1	0.63mi
38873 S Serenity Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1709	$2,875	$1.68	25d	1	0.65mi
38774 S Desert Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1638	$2,775	$1.69	19d	1	0.65mi
65091 E Diamond Ridge Ct Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	2075	$2,800	$1.35	25d	1	0.68mi
38162 S Desert Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	2106	$2,950	$1.40	25d	1	0.70mi
37330 S Canyon View Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,500	$2.45	25d	1	0.79mi
63945 E Orangewood Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	2194	$2,900	$1.32	25d	1	0.88mi
37514 S Desert Star Ct Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1576	$2,500	$1.59	5d	1	0.89mi
37413 S Golf Course Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1977	$3,100	$1.57	25d	1	1.14mi
39548 S Summerwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1638	$2,700	$1.65	2d	1	1.27mi
37284 S Ocotillo Canyon Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1968	$2,875	$1.46	25d	1	1.27mi
36716 S Stoney Flower Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1866	$3,900	$2.09	25d	1	1.27mi
65685 E Rocky Trail Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2140	$2,000	$0.93	25d	1	1.28mi
39019 S Moonwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1959	$2,800	$1.43	19d	1	1.29mi
39589 S Summerwood Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1650	$3,000	$1.82	2d	1	1.31mi
36500 S Rock Crest Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1913	$4,200	$2.20	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $263 · $3,156/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $315,000 Active
17. 2008-07-31
    historical
18. 2007-12-07
    listed $249,900
19. 1990-12-12
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,799
• − Management: −$2,799
• − HOA: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$4,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $2,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oracle Elementary District (4444)
• NCES district ID: 0405640
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $60,899
• Composite: 20.97/100
• National rank: #8469
• State rank: #159 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Saddlebrooke

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #18326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saddlebrooke, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,749

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.24%
• Current HPI: 211.3845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $315,000 MLSSAZ
• 2008-07-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2007-12-07 Listed $249,900 MLSSAZ
• 1990-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,100 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.