6400 Bellavia Ln · Panama City, FL 32404

$289,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 8,276 sqft lot Est $284k · at est. $78/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller! Welcome to 6400 Bellavia Lane, a beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,394 square feet of comfortable living space in the highly sought-after Liberty community of Panama City. Perfectly designed for everyday living and entertaining, this home features an open-concept floor plan, spacious bedrooms, and a large privacy-fenced backyard that provides the ideal setting for outdoor gatherings, children at play, or pets to roam freely. Located just a short walk from Liberty's outstanding neighborhood amenities, residents enjoy access to a resort-style community pool, splash pad, playground, fitness center, and beautifully maintained common areas, creating an exceptional lifestyle for families and active homeowners alike. The Liberty community also offers sidewalks throughout and a welcoming neighborhood atmosphere. Conveniently situated off Highway 231, this home offers easy access to everyday necessities and major destinations. Tyndall Air Force Base is just a short commute away, making it an excellent choice for military personnel and civilian employees. You'll also appreciate the convenient access to Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, as well as the shopping, dining, entertainment, and white-sand beaches that make the Panama City area so desirable. Liberty's location provides quick access to Panama City Beach, local schools, healthcare facilities, and countless recreational opportunities. Adding even more convenience, the newly developed shopping corridor along Highway 231 features a new Publix and Starbucks just minutes from the neighborhood, making daily errands and your morning coffee run easier than ever. Whether you're searching for your first home, a growing family home, or an investment in one of Panama City's fastest-growing communities, 6400 Bellavia Lane offers the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and community living.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Splash pad
• Playground

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE PRIVACY-FENCED BACKYARD
• RESORT-STYLE COMMUNITY POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• PLAYGROUND
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Association fees cover grounds maintenance, management and recreational facilities; Fees include accounting and ground keeping; Community amenities include pool, playground, pavilion/gazebo, community room, exercise room, BBQ grill, and pickleball; short-term rentals not allowed; pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway with 2 spaces
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service; TV cable available; Phone service available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story Craftsman-style home; Built in 2023; Zoned for single-family residential; Lot approx. 0.19 acre (65 x 125)
• Construction: Vinyl siding and trim; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Privacy fencing; Open patio; Open porch; Paved road access; Sidewalks; Covenants and restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the first floor); Primary bedroom with double vanity, shower (no tub) and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat control
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Living room on the first floor; Kitchen on the first floor
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-806/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommy Smith Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 639 students, 53% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,919 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6380 Bellavia Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,500 (0%)	2mo	$270,000	$180	95
6943 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,458 (-3%)	4mo	$273,900	$188	60
6558 Canley Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-8%)	2mo	$267,500	$193	56
6682 Atkins Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,439 (-4%)	2mo	$250,000	$174	54
6998 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	1mo	$310,000	$196	52
7074 Merlyn Dethlefsen Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	4mo	$289,900	$183	51
6958 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	4mo	$299,900	$190	51
7039 George Day Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	2mo	$299,400	$189	51
6974 William Pitsenbarger Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	4mo	$309,900	$196	50
7087 George Day Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	4mo	$279,900	$177	50
7038 Merlyn Dethlefsen Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	2mo	$298,500	$189	50
7043 George Day Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	3mo	$299,900	$190	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-55,573
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-71,546
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,172/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,504

Max offer price $277,142

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $15	+0% $-67	+5% $-149	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-163	+0% $-67	+5% $28	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $6	base $-67	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6416 Bellavia Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,100	$1.16	15d	1	0.09mi
5284 Emma Grace Dr Panama City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2069	$2,393	$1.16	15d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $289,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $290,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $290,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,172 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,172 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,172
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$5,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Panama City offers a good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is ready for a cosmetic rehab to enhance curb appeal and add smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both landscape and add privacy fencing — improves curb appeal and provides privacy
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both landscape and add privacy fencing — improves curb appeal and provides privacy ↑
• Both install smart home features — attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $290,000 ECAR
• 2026-06-05 Listed $290,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-07-13 Sold (MLS) $281,400 CPARMLS
• 2023-06-15 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-06-06 Price Changed $281,400 CPARMLS
• 2023-05-25 Price Changed $280,400 CPARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Price Changed $292,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-25 Price Changed $308,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-22 Price Changed $269,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Listed $308,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+264.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,172 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.