405 NW Dellah Ave · Wilbur, WA 99185

$170,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 269 Days on market

Built 1915 5,765 sqft lot $117/sqft · 24% below area Est $224k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the best of Wilbur! It's close to the city but a peaceful small-town atmosphere. The property features many updates, including new flooring throughout and an updated mini split heating/cooling system. Cozy dining area with fireplace, spacious living room, and kitchen on the main floor. The second floor boasts two bedrooms, a family room, and a bathroom. It's a large corner lot with a private deck, cherry tree, raised garden beds, and large fence back yard. Come enjoy peaceful evenings and beautiful sunsets.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• New mini-splits
• Shady covered deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SHADY COVERED DECK
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• NEW MINI-SPLITS
• TERRACED BACK YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (41.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#338 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Wilbur School District (rural): math 40% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #137 of 291 in WA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilbur Elementary School (91 students, 53% FRL); Wilbur Secondary School (126 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 31% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,601 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.45%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,423
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -24.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 SE Regent Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,402 (-4%)	7mo	$220,000	$157	54
413 SW Regent Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (-7%)	13mo	$199,900	$147	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $26,288
• Equity at exit: $102,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $93,107
• Equity at exit: $182,677

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99185

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,438/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,370

Max offer price $117,830

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-199	-5% $-247	+0% $-295	+5% $-343	+10% $-392
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-335	+0% $-295	+5% $-256	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-210	-0.5pp $-252	base $-295	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 260 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $170,000 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 256 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 250 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 249 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 248 DOM
18. 2026-03-25
    price $170,000
19. 2026-03-16
    price $180,000
20. 2026-01-12
    price $199,900
21. 2025-10-21
    price $225,000
22. 2025-09-25
    listed $240,000 Active
23. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus $162,000 Sold 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Enjoy the best of Wilbur! It's close to the city but a peaceful small-town atmosphere. The property features many updates, including new flooring throughout and an updated mini split heating/cooling system. Cozy dining area with fireplace, spacious living room, and kitchen on the main floor. The second floor boasts two bedrooms, a family room, and a bathroom. It's a large corner lot with a private deck, cherry tree, raised garden beds, and large fence back yard. Come enjoy peaceful evenings and beautiful sunsets.

24. 2021-04-16
    status Pending 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Enjoy the best of Wilbur! It's close to the city but a peaceful small-town atmosphere. The property features many updates, including new flooring throughout and an updated mini split heating/cooling system. Cozy dining area with fireplace, spacious living room, and kitchen on the main floor. The second floor boasts two bedrooms, a family room, and a bathroom. It's a large corner lot with a private deck, cherry tree, raised garden beds, and large fence back yard. Come enjoy peaceful evenings and beautiful sunsets.

25. 2021-04-08
    listed $156,900 New 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Enjoy the best of Wilbur! It's close to the city but a peaceful small-town atmosphere. The property features many updates, including new flooring throughout and an updated mini split heating/cooling system. Cozy dining area with fireplace, spacious living room, and kitchen on the main floor. The second floor boasts two bedrooms, a family room, and a bathroom. It's a large corner lot with a private deck, cherry tree, raised garden beds, and large fence back yard. Come enjoy peaceful evenings and beautiful sunsets.

26. 2020-09-25
    soldstatus $110,000
27. 2020-08-11
    listed $129,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,666 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,438
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$956
• − Management: −$956
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$6,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilbur School District
• NCES district ID: 5309840
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,213
• Composite: 46.08/100
• National rank: #5483
• State rank: #137 of 291 in WA

Livability — Wilbur

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #338
• US rank: #12852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilbur, WA
• Population (ZIP): 1,518

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,599 people
• By 2030: 9,146 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 8,298 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 7,683 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 6,790 · -29.3%
• By 2100: 6,029 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 23.6% · R 74.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+48.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 261.0745
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+31.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $170,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $180,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $199,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $225,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Listed $240,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-15 Sold (MLS) $162,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-16 Pending — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-08 Listed $156,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-25 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-11 Listed $129,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+70.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,438 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.