118 Thunder Mountain Ct · Ruidoso, NM 88312

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Other public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1979 $221/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FULLY FURNISHED TURNKEY INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN ALTO ALPS! Successful short-term rental with proven income history! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo in the highly sought-after Alto Alps community offers the perfect blend of investment potential and mountain getaway charm. Ideally located just minutes from Alto Lakes Golf and Country Club, Ski Apache, and Ruidoso, this property attracts year-round visitors seeking cool mountain air and outdoor adventure. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or own a personal retreat that generates income when you're away, this condo checks all the boxes! Alto Alps has a community clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts!

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Minutes from ruidoso
• $221 HOA

Tags

• TURNKEY INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• SUCCESSFUL SHORT-TERM RENTAL
• HIGHLY SOUGHT-AFTER COMMUNITY
• MINUTES FROM SKI APACHE
• MINUTES FROM RUIDOSO
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Capitan Municipal Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #16 of 95 in NM (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 430 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,954
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,043
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88312

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 430
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$221
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,766

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Pine Knot Trl Alto, NM	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $221 · $2,652/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $190,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-04-03
    listed $195,000 Active 683-char remark

    Show marketing remark (683 chars)

    FULLY FURNISHED TURNKEY INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN ALTO ALPS! Successful short-term rental with proven income history! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo in the highly sought-after Alto Alps community offers the perfect blend of investment potential and mountain getaway charm. Ideally located just minutes from Alto Lakes Golf and Country Club, Ski Apache, and Ruidoso, this property attracts year-round visitors seeking cool mountain air and outdoor adventure. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or own a personal retreat that generates income when you're away, this condo checks all the boxes! Alto Alps has a community clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts!

19. 2023-10-31
    soldstatus Closed 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Well Kept 2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1 Level Condo at Alto Mountain Village - This unit offers wonderful natural light, beautiful valley views and a wood burning fireplace. Property to be sold fully furnished.

20. 2023-10-31
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Well Kept 2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1 Level Condo at Alto Mountain Village - This unit offers wonderful natural light, beautiful valley views and a wood burning fireplace. Property to be sold fully furnished.

21. 2023-09-07
    listed $219,000 Active 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Well Kept 2 Bedroom 2 Bath 1 Level Condo at Alto Mountain Village - This unit offers wonderful natural light, beautiful valley views and a wood burning fireplace. Property to be sold fully furnished.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$333/yr (+$28/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$2,652
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$192
• After-tax cash flow: $2,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Capitan Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500270
• Math proficiency: 24% —
• Reading proficiency: 49% —
• Median HH income: $44,018
• Composite: 33.54/100
• National rank: #10504
• State rank: #16 of 95 in NM

Livability — Ruidoso

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,835
• Population (ZIP): 3,178

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,903 people
• By 2030: 15,556 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 13,064 · -22.7%
• By 2050: 10,991 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 7,619 · -54.9%
• By 2100: 5,966 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 29.8% · R 68.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+32.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.48%
• Current HPI: 169.5165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $195,000 RLCAR
• 2023-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-31 Sold (MLS) — RLCAR
• 2023-09-07 Listed $219,000 RLCAR

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.