3752 Porter Cir #25 · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Manufactured · 212 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $166k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the one you’ve been looking for!! Charming and spacious manufactured home in the most desirable Park (The Willows) on Bethel Island. You’ll have plenty of options with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Brand new carpet in Living Room and Front Bedroom, along with Dual Pane Windows. Enjoy warm cozy winters by the Pellet Stove in this pleasant neighborhood a few blocks away from the California Delta that offers water sports, boating, duck hunting, fishing and an abundance of wildlife. The kitchen in newly remodeled and the roof is under a transferable warranty. The landscape is low maintenance with a new sprinkler system and a large 12 x 8 storage shed to accommodate your outdoor tools. Affordable living, in a great location, come and experience what peaceful Delta living is all about. See Virtual Tour at www.3752PorterCircle.com

Key facts

• New toilets
• Exterior siding
• Waterfront community

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• NEW PELLET STOVE
• NEW TOILETS
• EXTERIOR SIDING
• NEW GUTTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: THE WILLOWS; Community clubhouse; Community pool (in-ground); Greenbelt; Guest parking; On-site laundry; RV parking; Pets allowed upon approval

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (tandem)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Mobile home (single wide, Woodbridge model)
• Construction: Wood siding; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Front porch with awning(s); Back yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / cooktop; Free-standing range/oven; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower; Other bathroom with shower-over-tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Pellet stove heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combined; Bay windows with screens and window coverings; Pellet stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 2.7% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $158k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.52%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,688
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 Alcott Ct #170	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	1mo	$129,000	$96	57
3605 Hawthorne Dr #114	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-8%)	8mo	$162,500	$148	52
3760 Porter Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	46
343 Alcott Ct	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-13%)	4mo	$178,000	$171	46
3757 Porter Cir #69	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	22mo	$80,000	$60	44
343 Alcott Ct #175	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-13%)	10mo	$35,000	$34	41
312 Alcott Ct #166	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-13%)	21mo	$145,000	$139	36
312 Alcott Ct	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-13%)	21mo	$145,000	$139	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $151,979
• Equity at exit: $142,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.96×
• Total profit: $396,570
• Equity at exit: $306,959

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $1,030

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,139	-5% $1,085	+0% $1,030	+5% $976	+10% $921
Rent	-10% $775	-5% $903	+0% $1,030	+5% $1,158	+10% $1,285
Rate	-1.0pp $1,110	-0.5pp $1,070	base $1,030	+0.5pp $989	+1.0pp $948

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $158,000
2. 2026-05-01
   price $159,000
3. 2026-04-10
   price $160,000
4. 2026-03-23
   price $165,000
5. 2026-02-27
   status Active
6. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-11
   price $167,000
8. 2026-01-13
   price $160,000
9. 2025-10-20
   price $165,000
10. 2025-10-10
    listed $175,000 Active
11. 2020-10-05
    soldstatus $89,000 Sold 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    This is the one you’ve been looking for!! Charming and spacious manufactured home in the most desirable Park (The Willows) on Bethel Island. You’ll have plenty of options with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Brand new carpet in Living Room and Front Bedroom, along with Dual Pane Windows. Enjoy warm cozy winters by the Pellet Stove in this pleasant neighborhood a few blocks away from the California Delta that offers water sports, boating, duck hunting, fishing and an abundance of wildlife. The kitchen in newly remodeled and the roof is under a transferable warranty. The landscape is low maintenance with a new sprinkler system and a large 12 x 8 storage shed to accommodate your outdoor tools. Affordable living, in a great location, come and experience what peaceful Delta living is all about. See Virtual Tour at www.3752PorterCircle.com

12. 2020-09-05
    status Pending 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    This is the one you’ve been looking for!! Charming and spacious manufactured home in the most desirable Park (The Willows) on Bethel Island. You’ll have plenty of options with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Brand new carpet in Living Room and Front Bedroom, along with Dual Pane Windows. Enjoy warm cozy winters by the Pellet Stove in this pleasant neighborhood a few blocks away from the California Delta that offers water sports, boating, duck hunting, fishing and an abundance of wildlife. The kitchen in newly remodeled and the roof is under a transferable warranty. The landscape is low maintenance with a new sprinkler system and a large 12 x 8 storage shed to accommodate your outdoor tools. Affordable living, in a great location, come and experience what peaceful Delta living is all about. See Virtual Tour at www.3752PorterCircle.com

13. 2020-09-04
    status Back On Market 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    This is the one you’ve been looking for!! Charming and spacious manufactured home in the most desirable Park (The Willows) on Bethel Island. You’ll have plenty of options with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Brand new carpet in Living Room and Front Bedroom, along with Dual Pane Windows. Enjoy warm cozy winters by the Pellet Stove in this pleasant neighborhood a few blocks away from the California Delta that offers water sports, boating, duck hunting, fishing and an abundance of wildlife. The kitchen in newly remodeled and the roof is under a transferable warranty. The landscape is low maintenance with a new sprinkler system and a large 12 x 8 storage shed to accommodate your outdoor tools. Affordable living, in a great location, come and experience what peaceful Delta living is all about. See Virtual Tour at www.3752PorterCircle.com

14. 2020-08-30
    status Pending 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    This is the one you’ve been looking for!! Charming and spacious manufactured home in the most desirable Park (The Willows) on Bethel Island. You’ll have plenty of options with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Brand new carpet in Living Room and Front Bedroom, along with Dual Pane Windows. Enjoy warm cozy winters by the Pellet Stove in this pleasant neighborhood a few blocks away from the California Delta that offers water sports, boating, duck hunting, fishing and an abundance of wildlife. The kitchen in newly remodeled and the roof is under a transferable warranty. The landscape is low maintenance with a new sprinkler system and a large 12 x 8 storage shed to accommodate your outdoor tools. Affordable living, in a great location, come and experience what peaceful Delta living is all about. See Virtual Tour at www.3752PorterCircle.com

15. 2020-08-23
    listed $89,000 New 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    This is the one you’ve been looking for!! Charming and spacious manufactured home in the most desirable Park (The Willows) on Bethel Island. You’ll have plenty of options with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Brand new carpet in Living Room and Front Bedroom, along with Dual Pane Windows. Enjoy warm cozy winters by the Pellet Stove in this pleasant neighborhood a few blocks away from the California Delta that offers water sports, boating, duck hunting, fishing and an abundance of wildlife. The kitchen in newly remodeled and the roof is under a transferable warranty. The landscape is low maintenance with a new sprinkler system and a large 12 x 8 storage shed to accommodate your outdoor tools. Affordable living, in a great location, come and experience what peaceful Delta living is all about. See Virtual Tour at www.3752PorterCircle.com

16. 2011-05-23
    historical
17. 2011-04-07
    listed New
18. 1997-11-20
    soldstatus $19,999
19. 1997-11-07
    historical
20. 1996-05-31
    listed $19,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$5,908
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,097
• − Management: −$3,097
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $10,795
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,591
• After-tax cash flow: $9,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+690.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $158,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $159,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $160,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $165,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-11 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $167,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $160,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $165,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-10 Listed $175,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-10-05 Sold (MLS) $89,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-09-05 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-09-04 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-08-30 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-08-23 Listed $89,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-05-23 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-04-07 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-11-20 Sold (MLS) $19,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-11-07 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-05-31 Listed $19,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR