4634 Gates Dr · Bismarck, ND 58503

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1995 Est $136k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate home on corner lot. Spacious living room w/ cathedral ceiling, cozy family room w/ plenty of windows. large kitchen w/ ample storage, breakfast bar and separate dining area. Both baths have skylights. Master bath has garden tub & separate shower. Double detached insulated garage, 8x10 insulated storage shed, garden area, partial above ground sprinkler system, updated landscaping around home. Move right in! Other Rooms - Mud.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Shed(s); Level, rectangular lot (rented)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $880 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.94%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4634 Gates Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	0mo	$135,000	$86	100
4602 Gates Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$135,900	$87	97
4501 Gates Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	9mo	$140,000	$89	87
4337 Drake Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	4mo	$86,000	$55	84
4422 Arlington Drive Dr N	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	8mo	$149,900	$89	74
4333 Hale Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+9%)	2mo	$99,900	$58	73
4251 Claridge Loop	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+14%)	5mo	$160,000	$90	60
5105 Redcoat Loop	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	11mo	$129,800	$96	60
4606 Rebel Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	13mo	$169,900	$126	58
2500 Centennial Rd #520	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	1mo	$70,000	$42	57
2500 Centennial Rd #410	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-9%)	0mo	$49,000	$34	54
2500 Centennial Rd #244	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-8%)	5mo	$60,000	$41	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $46,334
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $167,857
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $880

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4129 Oklahoma Ln Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.5–3.0	2285	$3,419	$1.50	21d	6	1.27mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	21d	6	1.36mi
1511 Sharloh Loop Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,050	$1.19	21d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $135,000 Active
3. 2005-03-04
   soldstatus 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Immaculate home on corner lot. Spacious living room w/ cathedral ceiling, cozy family room w/ plenty of windows. large kitchen w/ ample storage, breakfast bar and separate dining area. Both baths have skylights. Master bath has garden tub & separate shower. Double detached insulated garage, 8x10 insulated storage shed, garden area, partial above ground sprinkler system, updated landscaping around home. Move right in! Other Rooms - Mud.

4. 2004-11-22
   listed $67,000 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Immaculate home on corner lot. Spacious living room w/ cathedral ceiling, cozy family room w/ plenty of windows. large kitchen w/ ample storage, breakfast bar and separate dining area. Both baths have skylights. Master bath has garden tub & separate shower. Double detached insulated garage, 8x10 insulated storage shed, garden area, partial above ground sprinkler system, updated landscaping around home. Move right in! Other Rooms - Mud.

5. 1998-01-30
   soldstatus 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   CAMPER PARKING PAD- LOTS OF LANDSCAPING-TREES-LG SHED W/ ELEC-BEAUTIFUL HOME- VAULTED CEILINGS-SNACK BAR-PANTRY-SPACIOUS DR-MSTR BDRM HASGARDEN TUB & SEP SHOWER-VINYL SIDING Basement - NONE.

6. 1997-10-30
   listed $59,900 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   CAMPER PARKING PAD- LOTS OF LANDSCAPING-TREES-LG SHED W/ ELEC-BEAUTIFUL HOME- VAULTED CEILINGS-SNACK BAR-PANTRY-SPACIOUS DR-MSTR BDRM HASGARDEN TUB & SEP SHOWER-VINYL SIDING Basement - NONE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $8,943
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,146
• After-tax cash flow: $8,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+125.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $135,000 GNMLS
• 2005-03-04 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2004-11-22 Listed $67,000 GNMLS
• 1998-01-30 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-10-30 Listed $59,900 GNMLS