405 N Foley St · Seymour, TX 76380

$54,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 294 Days on market

Built 1942 Fair condition $33/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has so much potential with high ceilings, spacious living and dining, lots of closet space, and plenty of character! The exterior metal siding is in good condition so your attention can turn to making the interior the home of your dreams.

Key facts

• Metal siding
• High ceilings
• Built 1942

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• METAL SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 6.1% in Seymour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#191 in TX, #4,884 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Seymour ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #195 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seymour El (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 277 students, 65% FRL); Seymour Middle (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 190 students, 64% FRL); Seymour H S (math 74% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 177 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Baylor County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.56%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,967
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -52.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 W Miller St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+1%)	12mo	$195,000	$116	71
903 Plainview Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,471 (-12%)	8mo	$110,000	$75	55
811 Reeves Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,679 (+1%)	24mo	$190,000	$113	55
420 E Mclain St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-7%)	15mo	$110,000	$71	44
400 S Washington	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,500 (-10%)	23mo	$55,000	$37	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $54,715
• Equity at exit: $38,843

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.66×
• Total profit: $133,133
• Equity at exit: $74,520

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 39.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $110,000 ($78/sqft)
• Median days on market: 178 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76380

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,821/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $561	+0% $545	+5% $530	+10% $514
Rent	-10% $444	-5% $495	+0% $545	+5% $596	+10% $646
Rate	-1.0pp $573	-0.5pp $559	base $545	+0.5pp $531	+1.0pp $516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 294 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $54,900 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $54,900 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $54,900 Active 289 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $54,900 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-03-28
   price $54,900 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   This home has so much potential with high ceilings, spacious living and dining, lots of closet space, and plenty of character! The exterior metal siding is in good condition so your attention can turn to making the interior the home of your dreams.

7. 2026-02-05
   price $59,500 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   This home has so much potential with high ceilings, spacious living and dining, lots of closet space, and plenty of character! The exterior metal siding is in good condition so your attention can turn to making the interior the home of your dreams.

8. 2026-01-02
   price $64,900 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (248 chars)

   This home has so much potential with high ceilings, spacious living and dining, lots of closet space, and plenty of character! The exterior metal siding is in good condition so your attention can turn to making the interior the home of your dreams.

9. 2025-12-12
   historical
10. 2025-11-20
    price $67,500 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    This home has so much potential with high ceilings, spacious living and dining, lots of closet space, and plenty of character! The exterior metal siding is in good condition so your attention can turn to making the interior the home of your dreams.

11. 2025-10-25
    price $70,000 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    This home has so much potential with high ceilings, spacious living and dining, lots of closet space, and plenty of character! The exterior metal siding is in good condition so your attention can turn to making the interior the home of your dreams.

12. 2025-10-02
    listed $69,900 Active
13. 2025-09-22
    price $74,900 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    This home has so much potential with high ceilings, spacious living and dining, lots of closet space, and plenty of character! The exterior metal siding is in good condition so your attention can turn to making the interior the home of your dreams.

14. 2025-08-12
    listed $79,500 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    This home has so much potential with high ceilings, spacious living and dining, lots of closet space, and plenty of character! The exterior metal siding is in good condition so your attention can turn to making the interior the home of your dreams.

15. 2025-06-20
    price $84,900
16. 2025-05-21
    price $89,000
17. 2023-03-20
    historical
18. 2022-07-28
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$1,821
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $6,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $5,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $41,700–$75,060 screening

This home has moderate potential for improvement with fair exterior and interior conditions. Repainting and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Metal siding — Weathered and discolored
• Minor Interior walls — Paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace metal siding — New siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Seymour El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Seymour Middle C TX #356/1,662 Nat'l #3,585/14,009 High Seymour H S B- TX #199/1,632 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seymour ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839780
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $36,292
• Composite: 41.94/100
• National rank: #3353
• State rank: #195 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Seymour

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #4884

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seymour, TX
• County: Baylor · 3,534 people
• Population (ZIP): 3,484
• Household income: $42,463
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Baylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,534 people
• By 2030: 3,462 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 3,321 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 3,209 · -9.2%
• By 2075: 3,093 · -12.5%
• By 2100: 2,597 · -26.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.0% · R 88.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+77.0 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.22%
• Current HPI: 131.3235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-45.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $54,900 WFAOR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $59,500 WFAOR
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $64,900 WFAOR
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $67,500 WFAOR
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $70,000 WFAOR
• 2025-10-02 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $74,900 WFAOR
• 2025-08-12 Listed $79,500 WFAOR
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $84,900 WFAOR
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $89,000 WFAOR
• 2023-03-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-07-28 Listed $100,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,821 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.