9734 Us-421 · Milton, KY 40045

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1965 0.43 ac lot $81/sqft · 39% below area Est $170k · 41% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great starter home or investment property in Milton, KY - convenient to Madison, IN where there are wonderful shopping and dining options. This 2-bedroom, 1 bath home is on .43 acres in beautiful Trimble County. Don't miss out on this opportunity for country living, make an appointment today!

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#286 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Trimble County (rural): math 14% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #151 of 165 in KY (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $935 of equity ($691 loan paydown + $244 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Trimble County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.53%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -41.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9775 N Hwy 421	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-2%)	4mo	$170,000	$142	86
9889 Hwy 421 N	0.15mi	2/1.0	1,260 (+3%)	23mo	$158,000	$125	69
109 Hillwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (-6%)	9mo	$201,500	$174	44
331 Sycamore St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,389 (+13%)	13mo	$202,000	$145	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $39,068
• Equity at exit: $30,232

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $100,922
• Equity at exit: $37,331

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40045

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $301/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $748

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $698	-5% $670	+0% $642	+5% $614	+10% $585
Rent	-10% $519	-5% $580	+0% $642	+5% $703	+10% $765
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $667	base $642	+0.5pp $616	+1.0pp $590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
291 Agin Way Milton, KY	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,560	$1.20	44d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   price $99,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $101,250 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $101,250 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $101,250 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-04-06
    price $135,000 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    This is a great starter home or investment property in Milton, KY - convenient to Madison, IN where there are wonderful shopping and dining options. This 2-bedroom, 1 bath home is on .43 acres in beautiful Trimble County. Don't miss out on this opportunity for country living, make an appointment today!

13. 2026-03-04
    listed $149,900 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    This is a great starter home or investment property in Milton, KY - convenient to Madison, IN where there are wonderful shopping and dining options. This 2-bedroom, 1 bath home is on .43 acres in beautiful Trimble County. Don't miss out on this opportunity for country living, make an appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $301 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$558/yr (+$47/mo · 185.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$301
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $6,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $6,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trimble County
• NCES district ID: 2105610
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,287
• Composite: 19.35/100
• National rank: #8790
• State rank: #151 of 165 in KY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #13828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milton, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,118

Population outlook (Trimble County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,783 people
• By 2030: 8,694 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 8,345 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 7,711 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 5,922 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 4,016 · -54.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trimble

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.7% · R 77.3% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+50.0 2012: R+22.0 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.24%
• Current HPI: 186.5524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $135,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $149,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $301 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.