Idlewood Plan · Fort Worth, TX 76036

$282,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $282,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $353,391.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,342 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.08%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,391
• List price: $282,999
• Delta: -19.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1029 Pineview Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+12%)	12mo	$324,990	$199	64
1132 Birchwood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	15mo	$304,990	$191	47
1129 Chandler Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	17mo	$325,994	$204	46
1341 Fox Glen Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+12%)	8mo	$310,400	$190	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-106,472
• Equity at exit: $52,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-160,237
• Equity at exit: $30,555

Cash invested: $98,950 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,853
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,301/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,091

Max offer price $245,023

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-505	-5% $-627	+0% $-749	+5% $-871	+10% $-993
Rent	-10% $-918	-5% $-834	+0% $-749	+5% $-664	+10% $-580
Rate	-1.0pp $-571	-0.5pp $-659	base $-749	+0.5pp $-840	+1.0pp $-934

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,348
• Closing costs: $10,602
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
720 Watson Way Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,095	$1.18	44d	1	0.82mi
744 Walls Blvd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,300	$1.28	44d	1	0.89mi
705 Loftin St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,200	$1.45	44d	1	0.94mi
752 Rutherford Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,209	$1.19	44d	1	0.95mi
625 Hutchins Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,885	$1.39	44d	1	0.95mi
708 Cheryl St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,100	$1.27	19d	1	0.95mi
552 Kerry St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,295	$1.40	2d	1	1.03mi
2531 Braford Dr Crowley, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	25d	1	1.05mi
605 Hidden Dale Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,875	$1.61	44d	1	1.19mi
824 E Prairie View Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	44d	1	1.32mi
8457 Asheville Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,049	$1.14	44d	1	1.32mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,089	$1.23	25d	1	1.32mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,149	$1.26	44d	1	1.32mi
708 E Prairie View Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,750	$1.62	13d	1	1.33mi
433 Heritage Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$1,970	$1.10	11d	1	1.34mi
220 Elk Run Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1781	$1,965	$1.10	16d	1	1.36mi
816 Oriel Cir Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,400	$1.56	2d	1	1.36mi
237 Kennedy Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,935	$1.31	25d	1	1.37mi
10009 Quail Glen Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,795	$1.59	44d	1	1.38mi
8612 Orleans Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1790	$1,900	$1.06	44d	1	1.41mi
200 Kennedy Ct Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,860	$1.26	44d	1	1.42mi
2808 Adams Fall Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,100	$1.36	44d	1	1.42mi
205 Kennedy Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,935	$1.31	13d	1	1.43mi
204 Kennedy Ct Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,015	$1.36	3d	1	1.43mi
10905 Fawn Valley Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1796	$1,885	$1.05	6d	1	1.44mi
10600 Bilsky Bay Dr Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,765	$1.93	25d	24	1.47mi
10600 Bilsky Bay Dr Fort Worth, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,359	$1.78	2d	13	1.47mi
280 Edison Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,925	$1.30	25d	1	1.47mi
8564 Charleston Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,875	$1.28	25d	1	1.49mi
2605 Bear Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,950	$1.46	6d	1	1.50mi
3408 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,195	$1.57	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,999 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,999 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,999 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,999 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,999 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $282,999 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $282,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $282,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $282,999 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,999 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,999 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,999 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,999 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $282,999 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2026-04-22
    listed $282,999 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,795
• − Property taxes: −$5,301
• − Insurance: −$1,767
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − Depreciation: −$10,280
• Taxable loss: −$15,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,729
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,810
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7549
• State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $282,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $282,999 Zillow