4725 Desert Ridge Rd · Hope Mills, NC 28371

$163,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1997 0.46 ac lot Est $179k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great fixer upper to repair on almost half acre of land. Mew roof. New flooring. Owner finance available. A home to make your own.

Key facts

• Half acre
• New flooring
• New roof

Tags

• HALF ACRE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-level (one story)
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Brick/mortar foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Publicly maintained road access; Rural residential setting; Lot approximately 0.46 acre

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hope Mills Middle (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #331 of 475 statewide, top 70%, 514 students, 99% FRL); South View High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade D+, #299 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 1,502 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $500; list at $163k implies a 32500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,220 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.02%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,088
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5118 Belinda Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	8mo	$189,900	$130	85
5098 Belinda Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+9%)	9mo	$183,000	$115	75
4717 Desert Ridge Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-8%)	20mo	$165,000	$123	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $161,486
• Equity at exit: $146,843

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.17×
• Total profit: $418,321
• Equity at exit: $316,673

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28371

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,295/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $1,142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bayview Cir Parkton, NC	3.0	2.0	1875	$2,750	$1.47	23d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $163,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $163,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $163,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $163,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $163,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $163,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $163,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $163,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $163,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $163,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $163,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $163,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $163,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $163,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $163,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $164,000
17. 2026-04-10
    price $170,000
18. 2026-03-29
    listed $175,000 Active
19. 2022-03-02
    soldstatus $500
20. 2021-09-21
    soldstatus $500
21. 2004-09-09
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,295 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$4/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$1,295
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable income: $11,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,817
• After-tax cash flow: $10,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 39,196
• Population (ZIP): 6,458

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.91%
• Current HPI: 330.85
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+343.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $164,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $170,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $175,000 TMLS
• 2022-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $500 Public Records
• 2021-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $500 Public Records
• 2004-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,295 · +100.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.