3131 Grand Concourse Unit 2J · New York, NY 10468

$160,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 38 Days on market

Built 1956 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the heart of the vibrant Grand Concourse section of the The Bronx, this spacious 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom cooperative offers comfort, convenience, and exceptional outdoor space. This well-maintained home features a bright and inviting layout with hardwood floors throughout, a generously sized living room, ample closet space, and not one but two private balconies perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying fresh air and city views. The functional kitchen offers plenty of cabinet storage, while the oversized bedroom provides a peaceful retreat filled with natural light. Situated in a well-kept elevator building close to public transportation, shopping, parks, schools, and major hi

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Ample closet space
• Convenient location

Tags

• TWO PRIVATE BALCONIES
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE
• WELL-KEPT ELEVATOR BUILDING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking (waitlist); Parking fee applies
• Utilities: Con Edison electric; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Stock cooperative; Entry level: 2; Second-floor location
• Construction: Block and concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Trash compactor
• Bedrooms: Located on the second floor (Unit 2J)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Steam heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Common-area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,150/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 9659% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $806 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.87%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.5% appreciation · 6.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,397
• Equity at exit: $50,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $21,074
• Equity at exit: $64,090

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10468

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA est. from 4 same-building comps: −$961
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $106,687

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-258	-5% $-313	+0% $-368	+5% $-424	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-538	-5% $-453	+0% $-368	+5% $-284	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-288	-0.5pp $-328	base $-368	+0.5pp $-410	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,775	$2.45	22d	3	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − HOA: −$11,532
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$6,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,603
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed, including cleaning, landscaping, and addressing exterior scaffolding. Value can be added through these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen clutter — Cluttered kitchen counters and shelves.
• Minor bathroom clutter — Cluttered bathroom shelves and countertops.
• Major exterior scaffolding — Scaffolding on building exterior suggests ongoing construction or repairs.
• Minor interior walls — Average condition of interior walls.
• Unknown HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals in photos.
• Unknown landscaping — No visible landscaping details in photos.

Value-add opportunities

• Both clear kitchen and bathroom counters — Clearing clutter will improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both landscaping — Landscaping can enhance curb appeal and add value to the property.
• Both HVAC/mechanical inspection — Ensuring HVAC/mechanical systems are functioning properly can improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both exterior scaffolding removal — Removing scaffolding will reveal the building's true condition and improve curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen clutter · Cluttered kitchen counters and shelves.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom clutter · Cluttered bathroom shelves and countertops.	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior scaffolding · Scaffolding on building exterior suggests ongoing construction or repairs.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Average condition of interior walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals in photos.	Unknown	$500–3,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping details in photos.	Unknown	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$17,500–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both clear kitchen and bathroom counters — Clearing clutter will improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping can enhance curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanical inspection — Ensuring HVAC/mechanical systems are functioning properly can improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both exterior scaffolding removal — Removing scaffolding will reveal the building's true condition and improve curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 75,557
• Household income: $46,233
• Rent vs Own: 91.5% rent · 8.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9659.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Black 17% Two or more races 15% White 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 45%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 69% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Current HPI: 249.8923
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $160,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid