150 Wilcox Dr · West Livingston, TX 77351

$124,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1995 $102/sqft · 21% below area Est $156k · 21% under $4/mo HOA ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home situated on a spacious 0.6-acre lot in the peaceful, country setting of Putnams Landing. This well-maintained home offers an open living area with vaulted ceilings, a functional eat-in kitchen with dining space open to the living room, and a split floor plan for added privacy. The primary suite includes a full bathroom with a shower, and all bedrooms feature walk-in closets. Additional highlights include a carport, storage shed, and a covered front porch. Surrounded by mature trees and plenty of outdoor space, this property is ideal for enjoying the quiet surroundings. Conveniently located near Lake Livingston with access to community boat ramps and close to town amenities—perfect for full-time living or weekend getaways.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Primary suite
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,000
• List price: $124,000
• Delta: -20.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,254
• Equity at exit: $18,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,454
• Equity at exit: $10,721

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1202
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $882/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $987

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $269	+0% $233	+5% $198	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $132	-5% $183	+0% $233	+5% $284	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $265	base $233	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-01-12
    listed $124,000 Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home situated on a spacious 0.6-acre lot in the peaceful, country setting of Putnams Landing. This well-maintained home offers an open living area with vaulted ceilings, a functional eat-in kitchen with dining space open to the living room, and a split floor plan for added privacy. The primary suite includes a full bathroom with a shower, and all bedrooms feature walk-in closets. Additional highlights include a carport, storage shed, and a covered front porch. Surrounded by mature trees and plenty of outdoor space, this property is ideal for enjoying the quiet surroundings. Conveniently located near Lake Livingston with access to community boat ramps and close to town amenities—perfect for full-time living or weekend getaways.

15. 2025-12-24
    historical
16. 2025-09-24
    price $124,000
17. 2025-06-26
    listed $129,000 Active
18. 2022-01-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $882 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,269 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,387/yr (+$116/mo · 157.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$882
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable income: $820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$197
• After-tax cash flow: $2,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Livingston, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $124,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $124,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $882 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.