1617 Perdido Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2003 7,823 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NOT A SHORT SALE. 3/2 block home. Split plan, large eat-in kitchen. Selling as is with right to inspect. Contact listing agent for more information. NEW KITCHEN, NEW COUNTER TOP, NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, FRESHLY PAINTED. Selling as is with right to inspect. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! Please contact listing agent for more information.

Key facts

• Poinciana community
• Fully tiled
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• FULLY TILED
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• POINCIANA COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.18 acres)
• HOA & community: HOA: POINCIANA VILLAGES; HOA fee $100 monthly (includes cable TV and internet); Community amenities: Dog park, Park, Playground; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Planned Unit Development (PUD); One-story; Northeast facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile flooring (general)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $230k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,641 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-34,172
• Equity at exit: $50,283

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,556
• Equity at exit: $48,459

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,940/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,085

Max offer price $206,495

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,720	$1.38	3d	1	0.12mi
116 Sail Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,805	$1.09	11d	1	0.16mi
1613 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$1,625	$0.95	23d	1	0.20mi
10 Trout Way Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	23d	1	0.22mi
10 Trout Way Unit B Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,749	$1.51	21d	1	0.22mi
12 Trout Way Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	21d	1	0.23mi
12 Trout Way Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	23d	1	0.23mi
1707 Sail Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,015	$1.11	3d	1	0.23mi
21 Trout Way Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	23d	1	0.24mi
16 Trout Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,775	$1.36	3d	1	0.25mi
1658 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,810	$1.09	3d	1	0.40mi
1660 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,975	$1.19	3d	1	0.40mi
1662 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1852	$1,940	$1.05	23d	1	0.40mi
12 Herring Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,613	$1.53	23d	1	0.43mi
104 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,925	$1.13	3d	1	0.52mi
106 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,575	$1.48	2d	1	0.52mi
1701 Pilchard Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,050	$1.19	23d	1	0.59mi
202 Snapper Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,050	$1.23	3d	1	0.59mi
1731 Minnow Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,750	$1.45	23d	1	0.60mi
5 Flatfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,150	$1.30	23d	1	0.63mi
241 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.64mi
1884 Snapper Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1682	$1,985	$1.18	14d	1	0.65mi
8 Flatfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,650	$1.19	3d	1	0.65mi
223 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,595	$1.08	23d	1	0.68mi
260 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,400	$1.24	2d	1	0.74mi
205 Dogfish Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,680	$1.06	13d	1	0.80mi
149 Conch Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	19d	1	0.95mi
310 Dogfish Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.98mi
321 Drum Ln Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,715	$0.96	19d	1	0.98mi
320 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	3.0	1606	$1,795	$1.12	23d	1	0.99mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	23d	1	1.04mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,100	$1.30	3d	1	1.04mi
352 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	23d	1	1.07mi
1405 Teal Ct Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,700	$1.06	23d	1	1.11mi
313 Amberjack Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,750	$1.41	23d	1	1.14mi
307 Michigan Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,744	$1.04	13d	1	1.17mi
1406 Orlando Pl Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,450	$1.15	3d	1	1.18mi
1907 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	23d	1	1.22mi
1912 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1420	$1,995	$1.40	23d	1	1.26mi
1951 Michigan Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1562	$2,060	$1.32	13d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $230,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-02-09
    listed $249,000 Active
15. 2011-08-02
    soldstatus $73,000
16. 2011-07-26
    soldstatus $73,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    NOT A SHORT SALE. 3/2 block home. Split plan, large eat-in kitchen. Selling as is with right to inspect. Contact listing agent for more information. NEW KITCHEN, NEW COUNTER TOP, NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, FRESHLY PAINTED. Selling as is with right to inspect. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! Please contact listing agent for more information.

17. 2011-02-02
    listed $74,900 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    NOT A SHORT SALE. 3/2 block home. Split plan, large eat-in kitchen. Selling as is with right to inspect. Contact listing agent for more information. NEW KITCHEN, NEW COUNTER TOP, NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, FRESHLY PAINTED. Selling as is with right to inspect. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! Please contact listing agent for more information.

18. 2010-07-09
    soldstatus $60,000 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    NOT A SHORT SALE. 3/2 block home. Split plan, large eat-in kitchen. Selling as is with right to inspect. Up to 3.5% closing costs paid if closed by 6/30/10. See attachments or contact listing agent for more information. Selling as is with right to inspect. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Please contact listing agent for more information.

19. 2010-05-14
    listed $59,360 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    NOT A SHORT SALE. 3/2 block home. Split plan, large eat-in kitchen. Selling as is with right to inspect. Up to 3.5% closing costs paid if closed by 6/30/10. See attachments or contact listing agent for more information. Selling as is with right to inspect. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage & HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. Please contact listing agent for more information.

20. 2006-08-01
    soldstatus $175,000
21. 2005-07-19
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,940 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,940 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,940
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,331
• After-tax cash flow: $-265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+71.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-26 Sold (MLS) $73,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-02 Listed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-07-09 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-14 Listed $59,360 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,940 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.