154 Worrell Ln · Colonial Beach, VA 22443

$239,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2002 0.74 ac lot $222/sqft · 15% below area Est $281k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Wooden cabinets
• Tile flooring

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• WOODEN CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOORING
• FIREPLACE
• WOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached private garage with two spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story entry (main-level living implied)
• Construction: Built using block, frame, modular/manufactured components and vinyl siding; Block foundation with crawl space; Pitched shingle roof; Above-grade living area only (no below-grade area)
• Exterior features: Lot with other/unspecified features; No tidal water on the property; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan cooling; Other heating and hot water systems
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Carpeted areas
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.4% in Colonial Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#460 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Montross Middle (math 38% / reading 58%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 309 students, 101% FRL) — zoned schools average 101% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $240k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,223 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.63%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,538
• List price: $239,500
• Delta: -14.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,549
• Equity at exit: $35,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,071
• Equity at exit: $20,708

Cash invested: $67,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22443

• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,139/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $239,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,875
• Closing costs: $7,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,500 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,500 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,500 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,500 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,500 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,500 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,500 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,500 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $239,500 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,500 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,500 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,500 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,500 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,500 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,500 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,500 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $258,900 812-char remark
18. 2026-05-05
    price $268,900 812-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    price $278,900 812-char remark
20. 2026-04-24
    listed $279,000 Active 812-char remark
21. 2014-11-05
    soldstatus $147,500
22. 2014-11-04
    historical 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

23. 2014-11-03
    soldstatus $147,500 Sold 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

24. 2014-11-03
    soldstatus $147,500

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

25. 2014-09-26
    status Contract 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

26. 2014-09-25
    historical

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

27. 2014-09-04
    status Active 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

28. 2014-08-09
    status Contract 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

29. 2014-07-29
    listed $149,900 Active 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

30. 2014-07-29
    listed $149,900

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Please call LA or schedule showing through MRIS to get combo code. Thanks.

31. 2011-01-27
    historical Expired
32. 2011-01-27
    historical
33. 2010-11-02
    listed Active
34. 2010-11-01
    listed $179,900
35. 2010-09-20
    historical Expired
36. 2010-09-20
    historical
37. 2010-06-19
    listed Active
38. 2010-06-19
    listed $179,900
39. 2006-01-31
    soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,139 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,964 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$825/yr (+$69/mo · 72.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,416
• − Property taxes: −$1,139
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$6,967
• Taxable loss: −$2,335
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$561
• After-tax cash flow: $2,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Colonial Beach

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #19615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Westmoreland County · 10,011 people
• City population: 10,011
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,011
• Household income: $64,810
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 126.0

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.23%
• Current HPI: 152.1518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+54.5% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $239,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $249,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $257,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $258,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $268,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $278,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $279,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $147,500 Public Records
• 2014-11-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-11-03 Sold (MLS) $147,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-11-03 Sold (MLS) $147,500 MRIS
• 2014-09-26 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-09-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-09-04 Relisted — MRIS
• 2014-08-09 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-07-29 Listed $149,900 MRIS
• 2014-07-29 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-01-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-01-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-11-02 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-11-01 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-09-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-09-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-19 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-06-19 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,139 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.