19 Hulse Ave · Mechanicstown, NY 10940

$279,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 897 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1930 0.46 ac lot Est $279k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You wont believe what a little elbow grease did to this home- owner has completely renovated the property. From windows to cabinets. This home is centrally located in the heart of Middletown but situated on a quiet road with private oversized back yard.

Key facts

• Updated ranch
• Versatile loft space
• Spacious driveway

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE
• UPDATED VINYL FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS DRIVEWAY
• NEARLY HALF ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Trash collection (private); Electric service by Orange & Rockland
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Dormer attic; Full, unfinished basement with Bilco door(s)
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot; Near public transit; Near shops; Near schools; No waterfront; Detached garage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: One-level home with bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Recessed lighting; Tile countertops; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#375 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William A Carter School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 777 students, 76% FRL); Middletown Twin Towers Middle School (math 10% / reading 42%, grade F, #595 of 729 statewide, top 82%, 858 students, 78% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $279k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,190 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,967
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
193 Schutt Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+0%)	2mo	$245,000	$272	66
86 Brookline Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	852 (-5%)	12mo	$265,000	$311	65
49 Belmont Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+3%)	22mo	$315,000	$341	59
26 Gardner Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0	992 (+11%)	22mo	$315,000	$318	55
44 Beattie Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	972 (+8%)	20mo	$205,000	$211	33
171 Excelsior Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,005 (+12%)	23mo	$240,000	$239	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-39,397
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $11,272
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,212 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,120/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $262,760

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-13	+0% $-92	+5% $-171	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-179	+0% $-92	+5% $-5	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-21	base $-92	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 E Main St Middletown, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,750	$2.97	14d	9	0.33mi
140 Fairfax Ave Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	630	$1,850	$2.94	44d	1	0.51mi
22 Sunnyside Ave Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	928	$1,800	$1.94	44d	1	0.58mi
63 Broad St Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$2,700	$2.48	24d	1	0.58mi
3 Giada Ln Unit 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	44d	1	0.63mi
1 Giada Ln #5 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	44d	1	0.64mi
31 Beattie Ave #2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	718	$2,000	$2.79	44d	1	0.74mi
90 Montgomery St Unit Upper Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	24d	1	0.78mi
700 Stratford Ln Middletown, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$2,200	$2.75	14d	1	0.88mi
17 Academy Ave Unit 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	44d	1	0.99mi
77 Linden Ave Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	742	$1,675	$2.26	44d	1	1.11mi
30 E Main St Unit 4 Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	44d	1	1.14mi
2 E Main St Unit 4 Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	44d	1	1.19mi
23 W Main St Unit 1 Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	770	$1,900	$2.47	44d	1	1.24mi
1 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	984	$2,200	$2.24	24d	1	1.25mi
44 John St Unit 3 Middletown, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	44d	1	1.28mi
139 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	880	$2,000	$2.27	24d	1	1.35mi
32 Palmer Ave Unit 5 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	44d	1	1.37mi
260 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	900	$2,025	$2.25	24d	1	1.44mi
23 Wawayanda Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1072	$2,150	$2.01	44d	1	1.45mi
268 Ruth Ct Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,375	$2.11	44d	1	1.45mi
31 Liberty St Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1090	$2,000	$1.83	14d	1	1.46mi
11 Knapp Ave Apt 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,500	$2.63	44d	1	1.50mi
126 W Main St Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	21d	1	1.50mi
126 W Main St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	700	$2,200	$3.14	44d	1	1.50mi
122 Golf Links Rd Unit 314 Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1078	$3,423	$3.18	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 692-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $279,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,120 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,917 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: +$798/yr (+$66/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$3,120
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
• − Management: −$2,123
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$5,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,431
• After-tax cash flow: $328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mechanicstown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #6457

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mechanicstown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+329.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-27 Sold (MLS) $105,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-12 Contingent — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-04 Price Changed $119,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-18 Price Changed $127,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-12 Listed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-26 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2013-08-12 Listed $129,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-12 Listed — HGMLS
• 2012-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-02 Sold (MLS) $65,000 HGMLS
• 2012-04-12 Price Changed $74,999 HGMLS
• 2012-04-12 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2011-07-04 Listed $65,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,120 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.