1427 Ailin Dr · College Station, TX 77845

$390,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 1,844 sqft · Townhouse public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2023 4,008 sqft lot $211/sqft · 31% above area Est $297k · 31% over $120/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on one of the largest lots in the community, this stunning 4-bedroom, 4.5-bath townhome offers an exceptional blend of luxury, privacy, and convenience. The thoughtfully designed open floor plan features a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into a contemporary kitchen and dining space highlighted by high ceilings and elegant crown molding. The gourmet kitchen is perfect for entertaining, featuring beautiful granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eating bar/island ideal for casual dining. Each of the four bedrooms serves as a private retreat, complete with its own ensuite bathroom and oversized walk-in closet with space-saving pocket doors. Designed for modern comfort, the home includes a 14 SEER HVAC system, separate thermostats on each floor for personalized climate control, ceiling fans in every room, and sleek hard-surface flooring throughout—no carpet. Additional conveniences include a keyless-entry two-car garage with remote opener and extra storage closet. Outside, the expansive lot features a grassy side yard perfect for outdoor gatherings and a covered back porch overlooking peaceful green space with no backyard neighbors. Parking is never an issue with a two-car garage, a large driveway accommodating up to six vehicles, and additional street parking right next to this unit. We think of it as the best unit in the property. We hope you will too!! Property rented until May 11, 2026.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Gourmet kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EATING BAR
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath townhouse listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $355k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,513/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 3329% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,114
• List price: $390,000
• Delta: 31.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3804 Silverthorne Ln	0.23mi	4/3.5	1,858 (+1%)	20mo	$333,000	$179	68
3825 Blackhawk Ln	0.29mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,818 (-1%)	11mo	$324,900	$179	66
1758 Lonetree Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,610 (-13%)	7mo	$334,000	$207	46
1617 Buena Vis	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,598 (-13%)	8mo	$339,999	$213	39
1756 Dakota Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (-13%)	16mo	$349,000	$217	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-20,949
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $38,392
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77845

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$587 /mo · $7,043/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$948
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,689

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1416 Crescent Ridge Dr Unit 1328076P College Station, TX	4.0	3.0	1980	$7,187	$3.63	21d	1	0.04mi
2126 Crescent Pointe Pkwy College Station, TX	4.0	4.5	1864	$650	$0.35	43d	1	0.09mi
1761 Dakota Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1598	$2,250	$1.41	21d	1	0.41mi
1762 Dakota Ln Unit 1328094P College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1506	$2,852	$1.89	21d	1	0.44mi
1720 Summit Crossing Ln College Station, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$2,205	$2.24	13d	46	0.57mi
4150 Pendleton Dr Bryan, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1061	$1,955	$1.84	13d	28	0.86mi
5040 Mooney Falls Dr Unit 1328058P Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$5,551	$3.02	13d	1	1.21mi
5041 Mooney Falls Dr Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	43d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $390,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $390,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $390,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $410,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $410,000 1455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1455 chars)

    Nestled on one of the largest lots in the community, this stunning 4-bedroom, 4.5-bath townhome offers an exceptional blend of luxury, privacy, and convenience. The thoughtfully designed open floor plan features a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into a contemporary kitchen and dining space highlighted by high ceilings and elegant crown molding. The gourmet kitchen is perfect for entertaining, featuring beautiful granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eating bar/island ideal for casual dining. Each of the four bedrooms serves as a private retreat, complete with its own ensuite bathroom and oversized walk-in closet with space-saving pocket doors. Designed for modern comfort, the home includes a 14 SEER HVAC system, separate thermostats on each floor for personalized climate control, ceiling fans in every room, and sleek hard-surface flooring throughout—no carpet. Additional conveniences include a keyless-entry two-car garage with remote opener and extra storage closet. Outside, the expansive lot features a grassy side yard perfect for outdoor gatherings and a covered back porch overlooking peaceful green space with no backyard neighbors. Parking is never an issue with a two-car garage, a large driveway accommodating up to six vehicles, and additional street parking right next to this unit. We think of it as the best unit in the property. We hope you will too!! Property rented until May 11, 2026.

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $420,000 Active 1455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1455 chars)

    Nestled on one of the largest lots in the community, this stunning 4-bedroom, 4.5-bath townhome offers an exceptional blend of luxury, privacy, and convenience. The thoughtfully designed open floor plan features a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into a contemporary kitchen and dining space highlighted by high ceilings and elegant crown molding. The gourmet kitchen is perfect for entertaining, featuring beautiful granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large eating bar/island ideal for casual dining. Each of the four bedrooms serves as a private retreat, complete with its own ensuite bathroom and oversized walk-in closet with space-saving pocket doors. Designed for modern comfort, the home includes a 14 SEER HVAC system, separate thermostats on each floor for personalized climate control, ceiling fans in every room, and sleek hard-surface flooring throughout—no carpet. Additional conveniences include a keyless-entry two-car garage with remote opener and extra storage closet. Outside, the expansive lot features a grassy side yard perfect for outdoor gatherings and a covered back porch overlooking peaceful green space with no backyard neighbors. Parking is never an issue with a two-car garage, a large driveway accommodating up to six vehicles, and additional street parking right next to this unit. We think of it as the best unit in the property. We hope you will too!! Property rented until May 11, 2026.

18. 2024-05-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,043 · $587/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,137 · $595/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$7,043
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,333
• − Management: −$4,333
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $1,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$449
• After-tax cash flow: $7,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College Station, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,764
• Household income: $88,851
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3329.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.31%
• Current HPI: 175.9669
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $410,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $420,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+60.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,043 · +112.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.