8203 Gladstone St · Houston, TX 77051

$308,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,155 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 5,000 sqft lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2025); Built by River Homes LLC; Single-family style (2,155 living area); Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 12x12); Bedroom on second level (approx. 12x10); Bedroom on second level (approx. 10x10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Quartz counters; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Vanity; Walk-in pantry

🏗️ New construction. The $308,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,445.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Young El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 385 students, 99% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 49% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,698 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.25%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,445
• List price: $308,000
• Delta: 13.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $164,584
• Equity at exit: $243,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $483,619
• Equity at exit: $525,415

Cash invested: $75,725 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,418
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,700/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,117

Max offer price $270,445

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $282	+0% $205	+5% $129	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $111	+0% $205	+5% $299	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $274	base $205	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,611
• Closing costs: $8,113
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	5d	1	0.16mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	22d	1	0.25mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	46d	1	0.30mi
7806 Comal St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	46d	1	0.37mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	19d	1	0.48mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	46d	1	0.65mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	46d	1	0.70mi
8606 Lee Otis St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1869	$1,975	$1.06	1d	1	0.70mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	26d	1	0.71mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	17d	1	0.77mi
3846 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1833	$2,300	$1.25	46d	1	0.80mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	23d	1	0.80mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	23d	1	0.80mi
3732 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,350	$1.36	26d	1	0.84mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	17d	1	0.87mi
3655 Seabrook St Unit 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,000	$0.62	46d	1	0.88mi
7507 Springhill St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2000	$4,500	$2.25	46d	1	0.99mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	46d	1	1.03mi
3615 Dreyfus St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2011	$2,800	$1.39	46d	1	1.08mi
8181 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1241	$2,041	$1.64	26d	18	1.17mi
8181 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1356	$2,262	$1.67	1d	48	1.17mi
3088 Holly Hall St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1600	$1,750	$1.09	17d	1	1.20mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	46d	1	1.21mi
3402 Nathaniel Brown St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1885	$2,025	$1.07	46d	1	1.22mi
2968 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	46d	1	1.22mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	1.23mi
2924 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	46d	1	1.26mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	46d	1	1.27mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	46d	1	1.28mi
6809 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	1921	$2,600	$1.35	46d	1	1.32mi
7379 Ardmore St Unit 1303 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,967	$1.36	24d	1	1.37mi
7379 Ardmore St Unit 1303 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,967	$1.36	46d	1	1.37mi
2700 Holly Hall St Unit 2733 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1943	$2,049	$1.05	0d	1	1.38mi
2700 Holly Hall St Unit 2737 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1720	$1,767	$1.03	0d	1	1.38mi
7373 Ardmore St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,887	$1.72	7d	24	1.38mi
2656 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1850	$2,206	$1.19	46d	1	1.41mi
5201 Kenilwood Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2442	$1,725	$0.71	16d	1	1.43mi
4705 Idaho St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,500	$1.50	19d	1	1.43mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	46d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $308,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $308,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $308,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $308,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $308,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $308,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $308,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $320,000 Active
15. 2026-04-21
    historical
16. 2026-03-11
    price $325,000
17. 2026-01-28
    price $339,000
18. 2025-12-15
    listed $349,000 Active
19. 2025-12-03
    historical $2,750
20. 2025-12-02
    historical
21. 2025-10-09
    listed $2,750
22. 2025-09-09
    status Active
23. 2025-09-05
    price $375,000
24. 2025-08-14
    historical
25. 2025-07-20
    price $389,000
26. 2025-04-08
    listed $395,000 Active
27. 2025-04-04
    historical
28. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,700 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,636 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,936/yr (+$328/mo · 231.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,149
• − Property taxes: −$1,700
• − Insurance: −$1,352
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − Depreciation: −$7,867
• Taxable loss: −$2,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$506
• After-tax cash flow: $2,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $308,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Rental Removed $2,750 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed for Rent $2,750 HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $389,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,700 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.