813-815 815 Commerce St · Shamokin, PA 17972

$80,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Other · 208 Days on market

Built 1900 $40/sqft · 11% above area Est $72k · 11% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare investor opportunity in Shamokin City! This package includes the multi-unit fixer-upper at 813-815 E Commerce St along with three vacant lots at 809, 811, and 817 E Commerce St. One side of the duplex is gutted and ready for renovation, while the other side needs general updates, offering strong value-add potential. Additional lots provide space for parking, expansion, or new construction.

Key facts

• New construction
• Space for parking
• Built 1900

Tags

• MULTI-UNIT FIXER-UPPER
• STRONG VALUE-ADD POTENTIAL
• SPACE FOR PARKING
• NEW CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 11.4% in Shamokin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#887 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Shamokin Area El Sch (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,146 of 1,518 statewide, top 76%, 832 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Ms (math 12% / reading 40%, grade F, #412 of 512 statewide, top 81%, 346 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Hs (math 42% / reading 30%, grade F, #300 of 437 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 57% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $80k implies a 572% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.89%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,841
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: 11.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $29,700
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $80,793
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17972

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $731/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $650

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $715	-5% $693	+0% $670	+5% $647	+10% $625
Rent	-10% $552	-5% $611	+0% $670	+5% $729	+10% $788
Rate	-1.0pp $710	-0.5pp $690	base $670	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    status Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Rare investor opportunity in Shamokin City! This package includes the multi-unit fixer-upper at 813-815 E Commerce St along with three vacant lots at 809, 811, and 817 E Commerce St. One side of the duplex is gutted and ready for renovation, while the other side needs general updates, offering strong value-add potential. Additional lots provide space for parking, expansion, or new construction.

17. 2026-03-05
    price $80,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Rare investor opportunity in Shamokin City! This package includes the multi-unit fixer-upper at 813-815 E Commerce St along with three vacant lots at 809, 811, and 817 E Commerce St. One side of the duplex is gutted and ready for renovation, while the other side needs general updates, offering strong value-add potential. Additional lots provide space for parking, expansion, or new construction.

18. 2026-03-01
    historical 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Rare investor opportunity in Shamokin City! This package includes the multi-unit fixer-upper at 813-815 E Commerce St along with three vacant lots at 809, 811, and 817 E Commerce St. One side of the duplex is gutted and ready for renovation, while the other side needs general updates, offering strong value-add potential. Additional lots provide space for parking, expansion, or new construction.

19. 2025-12-04
    price $85,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Rare investor opportunity in Shamokin City! This package includes the multi-unit fixer-upper at 813-815 E Commerce St along with three vacant lots at 809, 811, and 817 E Commerce St. One side of the duplex is gutted and ready for renovation, while the other side needs general updates, offering strong value-add potential. Additional lots provide space for parking, expansion, or new construction.

20. 2025-12-04
    price $79,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Rare investor opportunity in Shamokin City! This package includes the multi-unit fixer-upper at 813-815 E Commerce St along with three vacant lots at 809, 811, and 817 E Commerce St. One side of the duplex is gutted and ready for renovation, while the other side needs general updates, offering strong value-add potential. Additional lots provide space for parking, expansion, or new construction.

21. 2025-11-19
    listed $85,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Rare investor opportunity in Shamokin City! This package includes the multi-unit fixer-upper at 813-815 E Commerce St along with three vacant lots at 809, 811, and 817 E Commerce St. One side of the duplex is gutted and ready for renovation, while the other side needs general updates, offering strong value-add potential. Additional lots provide space for parking, expansion, or new construction.

22. 2020-08-06
    soldstatus $11,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $997 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$267/yr (+$22/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$731
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,163
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,719
• After-tax cash flow: $6,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shamokin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4221240
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,380
• Composite: 24.31/100
• National rank: #7709
• State rank: #450 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shamokin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #9448

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shamokin, PA
• City population: 9,808
• Population (ZIP): 11,294

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.14%
• Current HPI: 212.0474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+572.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Relisted — LCAR
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $80,000 LCAR
• 2026-03-01 Delisted — LCAR
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $85,000 LCAR
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $79,000 LCAR
• 2025-11-19 Listed $85,000 LCAR
• 2020-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $11,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $731 · +61.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.