305 Ellen Ln · Doe Valley, KY 40108

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Other · 2 Days on market

Built 1998 1.98 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on 1.98 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this freshly remodeled home offers the perfect blend of privacy and modern updates. Inside, you’ll find a beautifully updated interior with thoughtful finishes throughout. Step outside to your own backyard retreat featuring a stunning pool and fully fenced backyard—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying a little extra peace of mind. With peaceful surroundings and move-in ready appeal, this property offers the space, updates, and setting you’ve been looking for.

Key facts

• 1.98 acres
• Stunning pool
• Quiet dead-end road

Tags

• 1.98 ACRES
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• BACKYARD RETREAT
• STUNNING POOL
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($32/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.8% in Doe Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#169 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $165,505 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-33,922
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,582
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40108

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,392/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-13
   soldstatus $212,000 Closed 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Situated on 1.98 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this freshly remodeled home offers the perfect blend of privacy and modern updates. Inside, you’ll find a beautifully updated interior with thoughtful finishes throughout. Step outside to your own backyard retreat featuring a stunning pool and fully fenced backyard—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying a little extra peace of mind. With peaceful surroundings and move-in ready appeal, this property offers the space, updates, and setting you’ve been looking for.

2. 2026-04-02
   status Pending 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Situated on 1.98 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this freshly remodeled home offers the perfect blend of privacy and modern updates. Inside, you’ll find a beautifully updated interior with thoughtful finishes throughout. Step outside to your own backyard retreat featuring a stunning pool and fully fenced backyard—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying a little extra peace of mind. With peaceful surroundings and move-in ready appeal, this property offers the space, updates, and setting you’ve been looking for.

3. 2026-04-02
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Situated on 1.98 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this freshly remodeled home offers the perfect blend of privacy and modern updates. Inside, you’ll find a beautifully updated interior with thoughtful finishes throughout. Step outside to your own backyard retreat featuring a stunning pool and fully fenced backyard—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying a little extra peace of mind. With peaceful surroundings and move-in ready appeal, this property offers the space, updates, and setting you’ve been looking for.

4. 2026-03-31
   listed $210,000 Active 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Situated on 1.98 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this freshly remodeled home offers the perfect blend of privacy and modern updates. Inside, you’ll find a beautifully updated interior with thoughtful finishes throughout. Step outside to your own backyard retreat featuring a stunning pool and fully fenced backyard—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying a little extra peace of mind. With peaceful surroundings and move-in ready appeal, this property offers the space, updates, and setting you’ve been looking for.

5. 2026-03-31
   listed $210,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Situated on 1.98 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this freshly remodeled home offers the perfect blend of privacy and modern updates. Inside, you’ll find a beautifully updated interior with thoughtful finishes throughout. Step outside to your own backyard retreat featuring a stunning pool and fully fenced backyard—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying a little extra peace of mind. With peaceful surroundings and move-in ready appeal, this property offers the space, updates, and setting you’ve been looking for.

6. 2019-08-05
   soldstatus $123,000
7. 2018-11-20
   soldstatus $47,850 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Three bedroom two bath home. It has an updated central air/furnace and roof shingles, paved driveway, county water and some chain link fencing in the backyard. The home is situated on 1.9 acres that adjoins a wooded farm at the end of a private road. This home needs repairs. This doublewide mobile home has been converted to real estate. ZONING: A-2. Selling by online Absolute Auction, sells AS IS, WHERE IS. WHERE IS. There are no financing contingencies for homes sold at auction. This home may not qualify for any government loans. Sale of home must be completed within 30 days of auction ending date. INSPECTION: The home will be available for inspection Wednesday, November 14 from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM EDT.

8. 2018-11-20
   soldstatus $47,850

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Three bedroom two bath home. It has an updated central air/furnace and roof shingles, paved driveway, county water and some chain link fencing in the backyard. The home is situated on 1.9 acres that adjoins a wooded farm at the end of a private road. This home needs repairs. This doublewide mobile home has been converted to real estate. ZONING: A-2. Selling by online Absolute Auction, sells AS IS, WHERE IS. WHERE IS. There are no financing contingencies for homes sold at auction. This home may not qualify for any government loans. Sale of home must be completed within 30 days of auction ending date. INSPECTION: The home will be available for inspection Wednesday, November 14 from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM EDT.

9. 2018-10-22
   listed $47,850 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Three bedroom two bath home. It has an updated central air/furnace and roof shingles, paved driveway, county water and some chain link fencing in the backyard. The home is situated on 1.9 acres that adjoins a wooded farm at the end of a private road. This home needs repairs. This doublewide mobile home has been converted to real estate. ZONING: A-2. Selling by online Absolute Auction, sells AS IS, WHERE IS. WHERE IS. There are no financing contingencies for homes sold at auction. This home may not qualify for any government loans. Sale of home must be completed within 30 days of auction ending date. INSPECTION: The home will be available for inspection Wednesday, November 14 from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM EDT.

10. 2018-10-22
    listed $47,850

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Three bedroom two bath home. It has an updated central air/furnace and roof shingles, paved driveway, county water and some chain link fencing in the backyard. The home is situated on 1.9 acres that adjoins a wooded farm at the end of a private road. This home needs repairs. This doublewide mobile home has been converted to real estate. ZONING: A-2. Selling by online Absolute Auction, sells AS IS, WHERE IS. WHERE IS. There are no financing contingencies for homes sold at auction. This home may not qualify for any government loans. Sale of home must be completed within 30 days of auction ending date. INSPECTION: The home will be available for inspection Wednesday, November 14 from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM EDT.

11. 2011-05-12
    soldstatus $40,000
12. 2010-12-16
    listed $41,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,392 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,806 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$34/mo · 29.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,392
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$872
• After-tax cash flow: $904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Doe Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #8518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,469

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.25%
• Current HPI: 205.7001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+406.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Sold (MLS) $212,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $210,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $210,000 HKARMLS
• 2019-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-20 Sold (MLS) $47,850 HKARMLS
• 2018-11-20 Sold (MLS) $47,850 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-10-22 Listed $47,850 HKARMLS
• 2018-10-22 Listed $47,850 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-05-12 Sold (MLS) $40,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-12-16 Listed $41,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,392 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.