13721 Seneca Lake Dr · Texas City, TX 77568

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Land · 180 Days on market

Built 2025 5,998 sqft lot $153/sqft · 7% below area Est $312k · 7% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come out to Lago Mar & make this 1900 from Adams Homes your next address. This gorgeous home is bricked on all 4 sides & set on a lot with no back neighbors. Inside are 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, open concept living area, island kitchen, large 22' x 13' primary bedroom & 13' x 12' secondary bedrooms. laminate flooring throughout the living areas, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets & so much more! Make your appointment to come out and see this home today.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Island kitchen
• No back neighbors

Tags

• BRICKED ON ALL 4 SIDES
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-191/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,833 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,008
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -7.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-45,624
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-31,135
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,209/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $287,086

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $66	+0% $-16	+5% $-98	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-113	+0% $-16	+5% $81	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $58	base $-16	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.78mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	1.00mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	24d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $289,900 Pending 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,900 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,900 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    price $289,900 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Come out to Lago Mar & make this 1900 from Adams Homes your next address. This gorgeous home is bricked on all 4 sides & set on a lot with no back neighbors. Inside are 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, open concept living area, island kitchen, large 22' x 13' primary bedroom & 13' x 12' secondary bedrooms. laminate flooring throughout the living areas, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets & so much more! Make your appointment to come out and see this home today.

11. 2026-03-05
    price $284,900 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Come out to Lago Mar & make this 1900 from Adams Homes your next address. This gorgeous home is bricked on all 4 sides & set on a lot with no back neighbors. Inside are 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, open concept living area, island kitchen, large 22' x 13' primary bedroom & 13' x 12' secondary bedrooms. laminate flooring throughout the living areas, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets & so much more! Make your appointment to come out and see this home today.

12. 2025-12-27
    price $309,900 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Come out to Lago Mar & make this 1900 from Adams Homes your next address. This gorgeous home is bricked on all 4 sides & set on a lot with no back neighbors. Inside are 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, open concept living area, island kitchen, large 22' x 13' primary bedroom & 13' x 12' secondary bedrooms. laminate flooring throughout the living areas, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets & so much more! Make your appointment to come out and see this home today.

13. 2025-12-13
    listed $299,900 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Come out to Lago Mar & make this 1900 from Adams Homes your next address. This gorgeous home is bricked on all 4 sides & set on a lot with no back neighbors. Inside are 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, open concept living area, island kitchen, large 22' x 13' primary bedroom & 13' x 12' secondary bedrooms. laminate flooring throughout the living areas, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets & so much more! Make your appointment to come out and see this home today.

14. 2025-11-19
    historical
15. 2025-10-27
    listed $309,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,097/yr (+$258/mo · 140.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,209
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,350
• − Management: −$2,350
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$5,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $1,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $284,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $309,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,209 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.