4379 Hwy 42 #14 · Ellenwood, GA 30294

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 1976 $38/sqft · 82% below area $550/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Freshly renovated mobile home ready for its next owner! This charming home features updated finishes throughout, with just a few final touches remaining, making it a great opportunity to add your personal style. Buyers must be approved and qualified for lot rental. Water and sewer are included in lot rent based on usage. Motivated seller-agent owned. Don't miss this great value!

Key facts

• Built 1976
• Listed 28 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Ellenwood, Clayton County, GA; Unit number 14 in the park
• Financial info: Listing offered cash; Property sold as-is; Agent owned
• HOA & community: Community association with annual fee; Association fee listed (amount available in listing details); Community features: Near public transport; Subdivision: Forest Valley Mobile Home Park

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home / Single family residence; Manufactured house structure; Built in 1976; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: 1976 construction
• Exterior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Roof: Other; Construction materials: Other; Lot features: None; Land lease community

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: One-level layout; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,144 of 1,228 statewide, top 94%, 504 students, 90% FRL); Forest Park Middle School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #412 of 470 statewide, top 88%, 685 students, 90% FRL); Forest Park High School (math 8% / reading 16%, grade F, #344 of 424 statewide, top 81%, 1,765 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.

Recommended offer $29,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.06%
• DSCR: 4.92
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,331
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -82.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $37,533
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.4%
• Equity multiple: 12.48×
• Total profit: $96,456
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $627	+0% $616	+5% $606	+10% $596
Rent	-10% $479	-5% $548	+0% $616	+5% $685	+10% $754
Rate	-1.0pp $631	-0.5pp $624	base $616	+0.5pp $609	+1.0pp $601

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4446 Falcon Ct Conley, GA	3.0	1.5	1025	$1,600	$1.56	6d	1	0.76mi
4308 Sheppard Dr Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,850	$1.72	45d	1	0.78mi
1466 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	685	$1,100	$1.61	19d	9	1.35mi
4419 Richard Rd Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	864	$1,700	$1.97	45d	1	1.38mi
4589 Ryan Rd Conley, GA	3.0	1.5	875	$3,900	$4.46	45d	1	1.40mi
1409 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	12d	1	1.44mi
1409 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$1,100	$1.26	45d	1	1.44mi
1409 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	0d	1	1.44mi
1409 Rock Cut Rd Forest Park, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	3d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $30,000 381-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $20,000 New 381-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $7,775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,866
• After-tax cash flow: $5,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton County
• NCES district ID: 1301230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,266
• Composite: 13.41/100
• National rank: #9527
• State rank: #155 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ellenwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conley, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 41,983
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Clayton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 310,777 people
• By 2030: 329,762 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 368,052 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 401,196 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 472,488 · +52.0%
• By 2100: 500,446 · +61.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clayton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+69.2) · D 84.3% · R 15.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 66.4pp · 2024: 69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+69.2 2020: D+70.9 2016: D+71.9 2012: D+70.1 2008: D+66.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $30,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $20,000 GAMLS