6748 Fir Tree Rd SE #15 · Lacey, WA 98513

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 157 Days on market

Built 2022 5,500 sqft lot $208/sqft · 51% above area Est $177k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the perfect blend of modern style and quiet comfort in this brand-new 3 bed 2 bath manufactured home. The heart of the home features an open eat-in kitchen complete with a functional island and sleek, all-new appliances. Throughout the main living areas, enjoy durable modern laminate flooring, while the living room and bedrooms offer the cozy comfort of brand-new, wall-to-wall carpet. The thoughtful split-bedroom layout ensures maximum privacy; the primary suite features a spacious walk-in closet and a private ensuite bath, while the two additional bedrooms are tucked away at the opposite end of the home. Outside, the large, partially fenced backyard offers a blank canvas with pl

Key facts

• Never-lived-in home
• Modern layout
• 5,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• MODERN LAYOUT
• QUICK ACCESS TO LOCAL SCHOOLS
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• NEVER-LIVED-IN HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary (468 students, 37% FRL); Komachin Middle School (643 students, 50% FRL); Timberline High School (1,404 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.60%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,800
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -1.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6748 Fir Tree Rd SE #27	0.04mi	2/1.5 (-1)	924 (+10%)	23mo	$20,000	$22	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $18,508
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $79,589
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98513

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $840	-5% $779	+0% $719	+5% $658	+10% $598
Rent	-10% $526	-5% $622	+0% $719	+5% $815	+10% $911
Rate	-1.0pp $807	-0.5pp $763	base $719	+0.5pp $673	+1.0pp $627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $175,000
18. 2026-04-09
    price $179,000
19. 2026-03-12
    price $180,000
20. 2026-01-15
    listed $198,988 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,343
• − Management: −$2,343
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $6,207
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,490
• After-tax cash flow: $7,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,017
• Household income: $113,053
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Black 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.44%
• Current HPI: 337.436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $179,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $180,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $198,988 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $317 · +329.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.