129 New York Ave · Lakehills, TX 78063

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1969 0.52 ac lot $113/sqft · 23% below area Est $257k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a 2-car attached garage, set on a large lot in Lakehills. The open floor plan features a functional layout with an island kitchen that flows into the living and dining areas—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Generous outdoor space provides room to expand, garden, or create your own retreat. The home presents an opportunity for updates, with deferred maintenance reflected in the price. Conveniently located near Medina Lake, Bandera City Park, Hill Country State Natural Area, and local shops and dining along Bandera Rd.

Key facts

• Near medina lake
• Island kitchen
• Large lot

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• LARGE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• NEAR MEDINA LAKE
• NEAR BANDERA CITY PARK
• LOCAL SHOPS AND DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.3% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,231
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -22.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,050
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,492
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,295/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,984

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Scenic Crst Lakehills, TX	3.0	2.5	2193	$2,350	$1.07	7d	1	0.84mi
368 Northlake Dr Lakehills, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	3d	1	0.96mi
912 Pebble Beach Rd NW Lakehills, TX	3.0	1.5	1820	$2,000	$1.10	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-03-18
    listed $199,000 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Spacious home offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a 2-car attached garage, set on a large lot in Lakehills. The open floor plan features a functional layout with an island kitchen that flows into the living and dining areas—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Generous outdoor space provides room to expand, garden, or create your own retreat. The home presents an opportunity for updates, with deferred maintenance reflected in the price. Conveniently located near Medina Lake, Bandera City Park, Hill Country State Natural Area, and local shops and dining along Bandera Rd.

14. 2025-03-31
    soldstatus
15. 2025-02-24
    historical
16. 2025-02-18
    listed $175,000 New
17. 2024-12-16
    soldstatus
18. 2023-02-24
    historical
19. 2022-10-01
    price $315,000
20. 2022-09-23
    price $328,000
21. 2022-09-06
    price $335,000
22. 2022-08-26
    price $345,000
23. 2022-08-19
    listed $375,000 New
24. 2019-07-11
    soldstatus
25. 2019-07-08
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2019-05-28
    status Pending
27. 2019-05-17
    historical Active Option
28. 2019-04-05
    price $249,500
29. 2019-01-18
    listed $250,000 New
30. 2016-02-29
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2016-02-29
    soldstatus
32. 2016-02-10
    status Pending
33. 2016-01-29
    price $30,000
34. 2015-12-09
    price $34,900
35. 2015-11-04
    price $39,900
36. 2015-10-02
    soldstatus
37. 2015-09-29
    listed $48,000 New
38. 2015-09-28
    listed $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,295 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,295 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,295
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,010
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$242
• After-tax cash flow: $2,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+563.3% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-24 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-02-18 Listed $175,000 LERA
• 2024-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-24 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-10-01 Price Changed $315,000 LERA
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $328,000 LERA
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $335,000 LERA
• 2022-08-26 Price Changed $345,000 LERA
• 2022-08-19 Listed $375,000 LERA
• 2019-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-08 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2019-05-28 Pending — LERA
• 2019-05-17 Contingent — LERA
• 2019-04-05 Price Changed $249,500 LERA
• 2019-01-18 Listed $250,000 LERA
• 2016-02-29 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2016-02-29 Sold (MLS) — KVMLS
• 2016-02-10 Pending — LERA
• 2016-01-29 Price Changed $30,000 LERA
• 2015-12-09 Price Changed $34,900 LERA
• 2015-11-04 Price Changed $39,900 LERA
• 2015-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-29 Listed $48,000 LERA
• 2015-09-28 Listed $30,000 KVMLS

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,295 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.