409 Millwater Ct · Grovetown, GA 30813

$255,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,551 sqft · Other public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2016 7,405 sqft lot $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in the heart of Grovetown and just minutes from Fort Gordon, I-20, shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, this beautifully maintained home offers comfort, convenience, and peace of mind, featuring a new roof and fresh interior paint. Step inside to discover a spacious open-concept layout where the living room flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating the perfect space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet and countertop space, a breakfast bar, and an open view of the main living areas. The split floor plan provides both privacy and functionality, with a spacious owner's suite tucked away from the secondary bedrooms. The owner's retreat offers a walk-in closet and private bath, while two generously sized secondary bedrooms share a guest bathroom. Step outside to enjoy the backyard and patio area that is ideal for grilling, relaxing, or enjoying quiet evenings at home.

Key facts

• Ample cabinet space
• Fresh interior paint
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Grovetown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#57 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 724 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,408 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-50,999
• Equity at exit: $38,156

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-66,594
• Equity at exit: $22,126

Cash invested: $71,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30813

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 724
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,445/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,140

Max offer price $239,772

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,975
• Closing costs: $7,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
700 Keyes Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1950	$2,125	$1.09	44d	1	0.16mi
700 Keyes Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1950	$2,050	$1.05	23d	1	0.16mi
547 Cranberry Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,650	$1.19	44d	1	0.22mi
756 Keyes Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	3.0	1992	$2,000	$1.00	14d	1	0.31mi
532 Capstone Way Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,100	$0.97	23d	1	0.47mi
536 Stirling Bridge Rd Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	23d	1	0.58mi
2056 Sylvan Lake Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,995	$1.42	23d	1	0.58mi
1066 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,720	$1.09	14d	1	0.60mi
1058 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,875	$1.22	23d	1	0.61mi
1042 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	21d	1	0.62mi
1042 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,900	$1.23	23d	1	0.62mi
1063 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1656	$1,975	$1.19	23d	1	0.63mi
1055 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,875	$1.22	14d	1	0.64mi
1007 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	44d	1	0.67mi
358 Bowen Fls Grovetown, GA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,395	$1.21	23d	1	0.72mi
2045 Shoreline Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,650	$1.35	14d	1	0.73mi
2109 Kinsale Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1956	$1,995	$1.02	21d	1	0.84mi
1721 Dunmore Ave Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	2112	$2,200	$1.04	14d	1	0.87mi
3615 Penrith Dr Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,125	$1.15	44d	1	0.88mi
1117 Jolly LN Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,995	$1.37	14d	1	0.90mi
1115 Jolly Ln , GA	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,035	$1.39	14d	1	0.91mi
5336 Nikki Way Unit 1 Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	1755	$1,895	$1.08	44d	1	0.92mi
5336 Nikki Way Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	1755	$1,895	$1.08	23d	1	0.92mi
1864 Long Creek Fls Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,875	$1.07	23d	1	0.95mi
703 Buddy Ct Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,750	$1.13	23d	1	0.97mi
703 Buddy Ct Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,750	$1.13	44d	1	0.97mi
298 High Meadows Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	14d	1	0.99mi
724 Buddy Ct Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,870	$1.16	23d	1	0.99mi
3915 Griese Ln Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	1924	$1,975	$1.03	44d	1	1.01mi
943 Erika Ln Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,700	$1.32	14d	1	1.01mi
253 High Meadows Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,000	$1.31	23d	1	1.05mi
253 High Meadows Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,000	$1.31	44d	1	1.05mi
456 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1652	$1,995	$1.21	44d	1	1.06mi
3926 Griese Ln Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	1936	$2,231	$1.15	23d	1	1.07mi
484 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,200	$1.03	23d	1	1.11mi
484 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,200	$1.03	44d	1	1.11mi
488 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	2161	$2,100	$0.97	44d	1	1.13mi
2467 Newbury Ave Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	2236	$2,300	$1.03	14d	1	1.14mi
918 Williford Run Dr Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,195	$1.00	14d	1	1.19mi
4858 High Meadows Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1953	$2,285	$1.17	14d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $255,900 Active 975-char remark

    Show marketing remark (975 chars)

    Situated in the heart of Grovetown and just minutes from Fort Gordon, I-20, shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, this beautifully maintained home offers comfort, convenience, and peace of mind, featuring a new roof and fresh interior paint. Step inside to discover a spacious open-concept layout where the living room flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, creating the perfect space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet and countertop space, a breakfast bar, and an open view of the main living areas. The split floor plan provides both privacy and functionality, with a spacious owner's suite tucked away from the secondary bedrooms. The owner's retreat offers a walk-in closet and private bath, while two generously sized secondary bedrooms share a guest bathroom. Step outside to enjoy the backyard and patio area that is ideal for grilling, relaxing, or enjoying quiet evenings at home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,445 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,445 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,334
• − Property taxes: −$2,445
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,444
• Taxable loss: −$5,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,334
• After-tax cash flow: $238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia County
• NCES district ID: 1301410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,358
• Composite: 45.04/100
• National rank: #2695
• State rank: #13 of 174 in GA

Livability — Grovetown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #5433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 154,184 people
• City population: 52,466
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 52,466
• Household income: $86,923
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,073 people
• By 2030: 212,277 · +12.3%
• By 2040: 259,480 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 306,991 · +62.4%
• By 2075: 421,213 · +122.8%
• By 2100: 496,722 · +162.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.6) · D 36.8% · R 62.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.0pp toward D · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -25.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.24%
• Current HPI: 233.821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $255,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+26.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,445 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.