102 Runnel St · Seguin, TX 78155

$275,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1979 0.34 ac lot $154/sqft · 48% below area Est $525k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Space, versatility, and location converge in this 3-bedroom, 3-bath ranch-style home built in 1979. The 1,786 sq. ft. layout is designed for modern living, featuring an open living and dining area with tile floors throughout and laminate in the bedrooms. The converted garage adds an additional "flex space, " that can easily be used as a home office, gym, game room, or a fourth bedroom. This home sits on a . 34-acre corner lot with mature trees in an established, quiet neighborhood. The exterior includes a 2-car carport, a covered patio for shade, and extra storage buildings perfect for tools, lawn equipment or hobbies. Located on the west side of Seguin, this home is ideal for anyone commuting to San Antonio or New Braunfels with quick access to I-10 and Highway 46. You are also just minutes away from downtown, the Guadalupe River, Texas Lutheran University, and Starcke Park. Its location is a smart professional choice, offering close proximity to many industries in Seguin’s major manufacturing hub, including employers like Caterpillar and CMC Steel.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Quick access to i-10
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• EXTRA STORAGE BUILDINGS
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-10
• PROXIMITY TO DOWNTOWN
• PROXIMITY TO GUADALUPE RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($869/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,769 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $525,430
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -47.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Lakeside Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-3%)	2mo	$485,000	$281	56
150 Turtle Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,753 (-2%)	10mo	$899,900	$513	51
404 Reiley	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-14%)	2mo	$319,000	$207	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-42,203
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-39,877
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,043/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
358 Lake Placid Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,800	$1.55	43d	1	0.42mi
3209 Ridge Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,700	$1.25	43d	1	1.17mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	1d	1	1.23mi
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	1d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-04-03
    listed $275,000 Active 1083-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1083 chars)

    Space, versatility, and location converge in this 3-bedroom, 3-bath ranch-style home built in 1979. The 1,786 sq. ft. layout is designed for modern living, featuring an open living and dining area with tile floors throughout and laminate in the bedrooms. The converted garage adds an additional "flex space, " that can easily be used as a home office, gym, game room, or a fourth bedroom. This home sits on a . 34-acre corner lot with mature trees in an established, quiet neighborhood. The exterior includes a 2-car carport, a covered patio for shade, and extra storage buildings perfect for tools, lawn equipment or hobbies. Located on the west side of Seguin, this home is ideal for anyone commuting to San Antonio or New Braunfels with quick access to I-10 and Highway 46. You are also just minutes away from downtown, the Guadalupe River, Texas Lutheran University, and Starcke Park. Its location is a smart professional choice, offering close proximity to many industries in Seguin’s major manufacturing hub, including employers like Caterpillar and CMC Steel.

14. 1985-07-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,043 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,989/yr (+$249/mo · 146.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,043
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$927
• After-tax cash flow: $1,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $275,000 CTXMLS
• 1985-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,043 · -43.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.