1205 Marion St #24 · Centralia, WA 98531

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Other public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The older I get, the quieter I like it. This 3 bed, 2 bath home is located in a quiet 55+ park on the edge of town out of the hustle and bustle of traffic and city living. This house is ready to go with newer roof, updated flooring, and granite countertops. Also featuring enclosed parking, covered deck, yard area for your pets and reasonable space rent unlike many others. Come see it today and bring us an offer before it's gone, gone, gone.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Newer roof
• Enclosed parking

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ENCLOSED PARKING
• COVERED DECK
• YARD AREA FOR PETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash Out, Conventional
• HOA & community: Senior community; Pets allowed — see remarks; Monthly land lease of $525

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (City of Centralia); Multiple internet providers
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Fuqua); One level
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio/porch/deck; Paved lot; Wood exterior/wood products

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 tubs, 2 showers)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen with eating space; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Laundry & utility: Concrete ribbon foundation with tie downs

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (986 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $120k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.31%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $28,622
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $86,906
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,052

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $822	-5% $788	+0% $754	+5% $720	+10% $686
Rent	-10% $596	-5% $675	+0% $754	+5% $833	+10% $913
Rate	-1.0pp $815	-0.5pp $785	base $754	+0.5pp $723	+1.0pp $691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1411 Rose St #3 Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,295	$1.21	44d	1	0.39mi
914 B St Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,375	$1.48	44d	1	0.77mi
701 H St Apt E Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1137	$1,500	$1.32	44d	1	1.24mi
701 H St Apt R Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,500	$1.27	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2015-07-28
   historical
4. 2015-07-28
   soldstatus $25,000 Sold
5. 2015-07-28
   status Pending
6. 2015-07-14
   status Pending Inspection
7. 2015-07-14
   status Active
8. 2015-07-14
   price $30,500
9. 2015-05-30
   historical Expired
10. 2015-04-09
    status Active
11. 2015-04-02
    status Pending Inspection
12. 2015-03-18
    status Active
13. 2015-03-06
    status Pending Inspection
14. 2015-01-02
    price $32,000
15. 2014-09-30
    listed $33,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$149/yr (+$12/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,822
• After-tax cash flow: $7,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+263.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-28 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-28 Sold (MLS) $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-14 Price Changed $30,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-30 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-09 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-18 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-06 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-02 Price Changed $32,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-30 Listed $33,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,027 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.