13476 Stage Coach Ln · Cresson, TX 76035

$298,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · Other public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2024 7,802 sqft lot $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

COMPLETE and MOVE-IN READY NOW!! D. R. HORTON is EXCITED TO SERVE AS YOUR HOME BUILDER in the fabulous CRESSON ESTATES community in CRESSON and GRANBURY ISD! Large Single Story 4 BEDROOM Texas Cali floorplan-Elevation B. Open concept with spacious Living, Dining and large Chef's Kitchen complete with seating Island, Granite Countertops, Stainless Steel Appliances, gas Range, and walk-in Pantry. Partial split Bedroom arrangement with luxurious main Bedroom, wide Vanity, 5 foot over sized shower and walk-in Closet. Tiled Entry, Hallways and Wet areas, plus Home is Connected Smart Home Technology Pkg. Covered front porch and back Patio, 6 foot stained wood fenced Backyard. Gas Tankless Water H

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Main bedroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• MAIN BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PKG
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Cresson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#843 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Acton El (math 52% / reading 46%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 814 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,046 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,996
• Equity at exit: $59,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-48,896
• Equity at exit: $52,961

Cash invested: $83,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76035

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,916/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $257,427

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-151	+0% $-235	+5% $-320	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-418	-5% $-327	+0% $-235	+5% $-144	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-159	base $-235	+0.5pp $-313	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,748
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13404 Gitty Up Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,150	$1.30	0d	1	0.11mi
13557 Gunsmoke Ln Cresson, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,000	$1.12	0d	1	0.19mi
13545 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,490	$1.36	0d	1	0.22mi
13553 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1644	$2,641	$1.61	0d	90	0.24mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Cresson, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,532	$1.25	0d	1	0.24mi
13557 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,325	$1.40	25d	1	0.24mi
13565 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,250	$1.45	25d	1	0.26mi
13589 Gunsmoke Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,350	$1.42	0d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $298,990 Pending 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,990 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,990 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,990 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,990 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,990 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $298,990 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $328,390 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $328,390 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $328,390 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $328,390 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-02-02
    status Pending
13. 2025-12-06
    price $313,390
14. 2025-12-02
    price $328,390
15. 2025-12-01
    status Active
16. 2025-10-07
    status Pending
17. 2025-10-01
    status Active
18. 2025-07-22
    status Pending
19. 2025-07-11
    price $297,990
20. 2025-06-02
    price $299,990
21. 2025-05-23
    listed $310,990 Active
22. 2025-04-08
    historical
23. 2025-04-01
    price $290,990
24. 2024-12-14
    price $304,990
25. 2024-12-01
    price $305,990
26. 2024-11-29
    listed $310,990 Active
27. 2024-11-27
    historical
28. 2024-09-13
    price $305,990
29. 2024-08-23
    listed $310,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,916 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,555/yr (+$213/mo · 87.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,748
• − Property taxes: −$2,916
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,218
• − Management: −$2,218
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$8,068
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cresson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #15205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,247

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Current HPI: 187.0174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $313,390 NTREIS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $328,390 NTREIS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $297,990 NTREIS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $299,990 NTREIS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $310,990 NTREIS
• 2025-04-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $290,990 NTREIS
• 2024-12-14 Price Changed $304,990 NTREIS
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $305,990 NTREIS
• 2024-11-29 Listed $310,990 NTREIS
• 2024-11-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $305,990 NTREIS
• 2024-08-23 Listed $310,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+166.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,916 · +787.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.