405 Blakely Ct · Ruskin, FL 33570

$299,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2014 6,000 sqft lot $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If fabulous is what you are looking for, you just found it! Spotless four bedroom, three and a half bathroom home with a two car garage and virtually maintenance free yard. This open floor plan has many upgrades. 24”x 24” gorgeous porcelain tiles throughout, crown molding, and wide base-boards. There is bright open kitchen with large granite island overlooking the living room and dining room. The Master bedroom has a large ensuite bathroom with shower, tub and separate toilet area. This home is fresh, airy, pristine, and shows like a model home. 2 sets of sliding glass doors open to large covered and extended screened patio tiled with natural stone with lots of space to entertain friends and family. A white vinyl privacy fence surrounds the backyard. Quality details throughout including an upgraded A/C system. This dream house is in a great location and close to all amenities. Call to see today!

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2014

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot about 0.14 acres (approx. 557 sq meters); Living area reported as 2,035 (source: public records); Total building area reported as 2,751 (source: public records); Quarterly association fee and other fees apply
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Part of Dowgal Community Assoc; HOA required with quarterly fee ($130 quarterly / approx. $43.33 monthly); Association approval required; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north; Residential property in a planned development (PD)
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ruskin Elementary School (math 30% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,009 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 781 students, 77% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 497 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,266 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.32%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-64,025
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-89,693
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33570

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,791/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,808

Max offer price $270,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-77	+0% $-162	+5% $-247	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-265	+0% $-162	+5% $-59	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-86	base $-162	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1251 9th St SE Ruskin, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1650	$3,500	$2.12	6d	1	0.36mi
1105 Windton Oak Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,399	$1.16	26d	1	0.59mi
1119 Windton Oak Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2041	$2,325	$1.14	3d	1	0.64mi
213 6th Ave SW Ruskin, FL	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,795	$1.11	0d	1	0.81mi
2222 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1790	$2,250	$1.26	26d	1	0.85mi
2205 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1790	$2,000	$1.12	26d	1	0.86mi
1029 Spotted Egret Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,150	$1.47	6d	1	0.86mi
2306 Lawrence Hall St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,100	$1.21	12d	1	0.96mi
2235 Colville Chase Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1936	$2,400	$1.24	26d	1	1.03mi
320 Blue Point Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,145	$1.21	4d	1	1.11mi
2345 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1801	$2,250	$1.25	6d	1	1.14mi
149 Cascade Bend Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,400	$1.54	26d	1	1.18mi
424 Newmont Cir Ruskin, FL	3.0	3.0	1707	$1,950	$1.14	26d	1	1.21mi
1863 Moon Cactus Ct Ruskin, FL	5.0	2.5	2635	$2,600	$0.99	19d	1	1.24mi
724 Royal Empress Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1796	$2,195	$1.22	4d	1	1.31mi
2011 Sea Salt Ct Ruskin, FL	5.0	2.5	2415	$2,600	$1.08	26d	1	1.37mi
2025 Peaceful Palm St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,600	$1.62	16d	1	1.37mi
1501 21st St SE Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1618	$2,155	$1.33	5d	1	1.38mi
2502 Cumberland Cliff Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	2283	$2,695	$1.18	19d	1	1.40mi
2502 Cumberland Cliff Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	2283	$2,695	$1.18	26d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $325,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $350,000 Active
17. 2021-12-27
    soldstatus $367,500
18. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus $367,500 Closed 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    If fabulous is what you are looking for, you just found it! Spotless four bedroom, three and a half bathroom home with a two car garage and virtually maintenance free yard. This open floor plan has many upgrades. 24”x 24” gorgeous porcelain tiles throughout, crown molding, and wide base-boards. There is bright open kitchen with large granite island overlooking the living room and dining room. The Master bedroom has a large ensuite bathroom with shower, tub and separate toilet area. This home is fresh, airy, pristine, and shows like a model home. 2 sets of sliding glass doors open to large covered and extended screened patio tiled with natural stone with lots of space to entertain friends and family. A white vinyl privacy fence surrounds the backyard. Quality details throughout including an upgraded A/C system. This dream house is in a great location and close to all amenities. Call to see today!

19. 2021-11-05
    soldstatus $367,500
20. 2021-10-04
    status Pending 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    If fabulous is what you are looking for, you just found it! Spotless four bedroom, three and a half bathroom home with a two car garage and virtually maintenance free yard. This open floor plan has many upgrades. 24”x 24” gorgeous porcelain tiles throughout, crown molding, and wide base-boards. There is bright open kitchen with large granite island overlooking the living room and dining room. The Master bedroom has a large ensuite bathroom with shower, tub and separate toilet area. This home is fresh, airy, pristine, and shows like a model home. 2 sets of sliding glass doors open to large covered and extended screened patio tiled with natural stone with lots of space to entertain friends and family. A white vinyl privacy fence surrounds the backyard. Quality details throughout including an upgraded A/C system. This dream house is in a great location and close to all amenities. Call to see today!

21. 2021-09-30
    listed $367,500
22. 2021-09-27
    status Active 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    If fabulous is what you are looking for, you just found it! Spotless four bedroom, three and a half bathroom home with a two car garage and virtually maintenance free yard. This open floor plan has many upgrades. 24”x 24” gorgeous porcelain tiles throughout, crown molding, and wide base-boards. There is bright open kitchen with large granite island overlooking the living room and dining room. The Master bedroom has a large ensuite bathroom with shower, tub and separate toilet area. This home is fresh, airy, pristine, and shows like a model home. 2 sets of sliding glass doors open to large covered and extended screened patio tiled with natural stone with lots of space to entertain friends and family. A white vinyl privacy fence surrounds the backyard. Quality details throughout including an upgraded A/C system. This dream house is in a great location and close to all amenities. Call to see today!

23. 2021-09-24
    status Pending 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    If fabulous is what you are looking for, you just found it! Spotless four bedroom, three and a half bathroom home with a two car garage and virtually maintenance free yard. This open floor plan has many upgrades. 24”x 24” gorgeous porcelain tiles throughout, crown molding, and wide base-boards. There is bright open kitchen with large granite island overlooking the living room and dining room. The Master bedroom has a large ensuite bathroom with shower, tub and separate toilet area. This home is fresh, airy, pristine, and shows like a model home. 2 sets of sliding glass doors open to large covered and extended screened patio tiled with natural stone with lots of space to entertain friends and family. A white vinyl privacy fence surrounds the backyard. Quality details throughout including an upgraded A/C system. This dream house is in a great location and close to all amenities. Call to see today!

24. 2021-09-20
    listed $385,000 Active 920-char remark

    Show marketing remark (920 chars)

    If fabulous is what you are looking for, you just found it! Spotless four bedroom, three and a half bathroom home with a two car garage and virtually maintenance free yard. This open floor plan has many upgrades. 24”x 24” gorgeous porcelain tiles throughout, crown molding, and wide base-boards. There is bright open kitchen with large granite island overlooking the living room and dining room. The Master bedroom has a large ensuite bathroom with shower, tub and separate toilet area. This home is fresh, airy, pristine, and shows like a model home. 2 sets of sliding glass doors open to large covered and extended screened patio tiled with natural stone with lots of space to entertain friends and family. A white vinyl privacy fence surrounds the backyard. Quality details throughout including an upgraded A/C system. This dream house is in a great location and close to all amenities. Call to see today!

25. 2019-11-05
    historical
26. 2019-10-21
    listed $245,000 Active
27. 2010-05-19
    soldstatus $2,120,000
28. 2005-03-16
    soldstatus $1,725,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,791 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,791 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,791
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,499
• − Management: −$2,499
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,683
• After-tax cash flow: $-261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruskin, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,319
• Household income: $72,172
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.10%
• Current HPI: 277.8257
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-79.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $367,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $367,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-05 Sold (MLS) $367,500 realMLS
• 2021-10-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-30 Listed $367,500 realMLS
• 2021-09-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-20 Listed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-21 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $2,120,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,725,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,791 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.