28595 Ochre St · Warsaw, MO 65355

$150,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2017 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

More photos to come Endless Potential & Year-Round Lake Views Under $200K! On 84 Mile Mark in Warsaw, MO! Nestled on a spacious double corner lot, this Tier 2 property offers beautiful, year-round lake views and complete lake living without the hefty price tag. Right across the road is the public access and community dock. The home is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Materials are already on-site and included to finish the gorgeous tongue-and-groove walls and floors, leaving room to build quick equity. Outside, the expansive double lot is perfect for a garden or custom landscaping. A big Shop for a RV with a work area and storage.

Key facts

• Double corner lot
• Lake views
• Public access

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• PUBLIC ACCESS
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• DOUBLE CORNER LOT
• BIG SHOP FOR RV

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with concrete driveway; Open parking; Workshop space in garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One-and-a-half story; Fixer condition; Metal siding
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal siding; Crawl space foundation; Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage; Shed(s); Beach access / waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units; Attic fan
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet; Partially furnished; Wood stove; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Boise Middle School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 278 students, 99% FRL); Warsaw High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 403 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 61% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,635 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $30,636
• Equity at exit: $89,136

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $97,734
• Equity at exit: $157,368

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,156 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $132,188

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-71	+0% $-123	+5% $-175	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-169	+0% $-123	+5% $-77	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-85	base $-123	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 657-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,110
• − Management: −$1,110
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$4,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$986
• After-tax cash flow: $-491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $150,000 LOBR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $129,999 LOBR