20511 Anchor Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$76,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1970 2,352 sqft lot Est $82k · 6% under $151/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the “BARTLETT COTTAGE”, THE DIAMOND OF MARINER’S COVE!! The best deal in the community! This spacious floor plan offers an expansive entry into a screened porch area, meander up a couple of steps to a cozy kitchen overlooking an expansive sun-filled great room and dining area. This home offers brand new, upgraded laminate flooring throughout, and is fully furnished and ready for occupancy. The home has been freshly painted, and ready for you to enjoy all the amenities that Mariners Cove has to offer. Mariners Cove offers low monthly HOA and even includes water. NO HURRICANE IAN FLOODING! NO LAND LEASE FEES, all lots are individually owned. Mariners Cove has many

Key facts

• Screened porch area
• Boat ramp with slips
• Gulf access

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH AREA
• UPGRADED LAMINATE FLOORING
• RECENTLY RENOVATED LAP POOL
• BOAT RAMP WITH SLIPS
• GULF ACCESS
• LIBRARY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with on-site management; HOA fee $151 per month; Annual recurring fees approx. $1,812; one-time fees approx. $3,650; Community amenities include: clubhouse, community pool, community room, marina, community boat dock, community boat ramp, community gulf boat access, cabana, boat storage, shuffleboard, BBQ/picnic area, internet access; Community type: Boating, Mobile/Manufactured; HOA maintenance covers water

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; 1 story ranch; Rear exposure facing east; Built in 1970
• Construction: Metal roof; Vinyl siding; Single hung windows; Built in 1970; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Storage; Single hung windows; Metal roof; Vinyl siding; Zero lot line; Paved road access; Boat ramp and dock lease available (community amenities)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one on the first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with a combo tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Screened lanai/porch; Furnished; Efficiency floor plan; One ceiling fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,979 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.18%
• DSCR: 3.23
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20660 River Dr	0.14mi	1/1.5 (-1)	528 (+10%)	1mo	$90,000	$170	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $39,162
• Equity at exit: $11,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $85,843
• Equity at exit: $6,649

Cash invested: $21,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,064/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$151
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $854

Max offer price $76,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $944	-5% $922	+0% $900	+5% $879	+10% $857
Rent	-10% $743	-5% $822	+0% $900	+5% $979	+10% $1,058
Rate	-1.0pp $939	-0.5pp $920	base $900	+0.5pp $881	+1.0pp $860

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,225
• Closing costs: $2,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $151 · $1,812/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $76,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   price $76,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $77,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,900 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-05-19
    price $77,900
14. 2026-05-03
    price $78,900
15. 2026-04-23
    price $79,900
16. 2026-04-16
    soldstatus $59,900
17. 2026-04-12
    price $84,900
18. 2026-03-30
    price $89,900
19. 2026-03-14
    listed $99,900 Active
20. 1997-02-12
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,308
• − Property taxes: −$1,064
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − HOA: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$2,237
• Taxable income: $10,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,471
• After-tax cash flow: $8,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+419.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $77,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $78,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $79,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $84,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $89,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $99,900 NAPLESMLS
• 1997-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,064 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.