1127 Stone Arch · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$224,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2001 7,187 sqft lot $97/sqft · 23% below area Est $292k · 23% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4 bed 2.5 bath home, open floorplan, kitchen opens to dining area and living room, bonus room would make great second dining room or office, oversized living room, spacious master bedroom and closet, huge secondary bedrooms, back covered porch, storage shed, close to everything that New Braunfels has to offer

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Close to everything
• Bonus room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• KITCHEN OPENS TO DINING AREA
• BONUS ROOM
• BACK COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE SHED
• CLOSE TO EVERYTHING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($19/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1932 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $225k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,326 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,283
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -23.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1331 Mach Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,378 (+3%)	3mo	$293,999	$124	67
1932 Split Rock Rd	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,465 (+6%)	3mo	$415,999	$169	64
975 Manger Ln	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,191 (-5%)	3mo	$386,470	$176	62
307 Stone Pt	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,124 (-8%)	3mo	$249,000	$117	62
970 Manger Ln	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,040 (-12%)	3mo	$409,990	$201	57
951 Manger Ln	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,583 (+12%)	1mo	$444,295	$172	54
3236 Aviator Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-12%)	1mo	$272,999	$135	53
3204 Aviator Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-12%)	2mo	$267,999	$132	52
533 Sand Trail St	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (-11%)	2mo	$298,800	$145	52
3252 Aviator Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-12%)	3mo	$271,999	$134	51
1351 Mach Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-12%)	3mo	$317,999	$157	51
1938 Esplanade	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (-15%)	3mo	$399,000	$202	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,386
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-60,115
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1932
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,392/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $65	+0% $2	+5% $-62	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-81	+0% $2	+5% $84	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $59	base $2	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
461 Wind Gust New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1596	$1,800	$1.13	24d	1	0.12mi
461 Wind Gust New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1596	$1,800	$1.13	44d	1	0.12mi
475 Willow Arch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,995	$1.23	21d	1	0.38mi
722 Jennifer Way New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$1,995	$1.05	44d	1	0.42mi
255 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2094	$1,997	$0.95	22d	1	0.42mi
259 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,450	$1.09	44d	1	0.42mi
259 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,345	$1.04	21d	1	0.42mi
259 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,350	$1.05	24d	1	0.42mi
220 Kinsley Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$1,650	$1.03	44d	1	0.44mi
1255 Avery Ranch Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1892	$1,800	$0.95	15d	1	0.48mi
166 Canopy Oak Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2394	$2,300	$0.96	24d	1	0.50mi
533 Sentry Valley St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2418	$2,200	$0.91	18d	1	0.51mi
1390 Rios Bend Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	2642	$2,300	$0.87	18d	1	0.55mi
1390 Rios Bend Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	2642	$2,100	$0.79	12d	1	0.55mi
1391 Rios Bend Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1639	$1,747	$1.07	24d	1	0.57mi
220 Anne Louise Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2424	$1,395	$0.58	24d	1	0.59mi
206 Topaz #1502 New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1588	$1,900	$1.20	24d	1	0.59mi
1941 Colonial Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1746	$2,300	$1.32	24d	1	0.67mi
382 Creekside Curv New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1731	$1,595	$0.92	44d	1	0.77mi
1278 William Crst New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2045	$2,155	$1.05	11d	1	0.78mi
1492 Jordan Xing New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,850	$1.00	24d	1	0.78mi
1253 Ella Xing New Braunfels, TX	5.0	3.5	2831	$2,300	$0.81	2d	1	0.85mi
731 Myrtle Path New Braunfels, TX	5.0	3.0	2593	$2,600	$1.00	44d	1	0.88mi
307 Creekside Curv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$1,745	$0.95	44d	1	0.88mi
1644 Layne Loop New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	24d	1	0.91mi
1696 James St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,150	$0.87	24d	1	0.92mi
1908 Brandon Oak New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,895	$1.18	45d	1	0.92mi
1721 James St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,950	$1.17	24d	1	0.95mi
1733 James St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1717	$1,995	$1.16	24d	1	0.97mi
1247 Meyers Mdw New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2655	$2,700	$1.02	2d	1	1.02mi
1000 Barbarosa Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,713	$1.03	44d	1	1.05mi
1780 Tristan Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2932	$1,525	$0.52	5d	1	1.09mi
816 Barbarosa Rd New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1407	$2,630	$1.87	2d	20	1.11mi
2072 Oxbow Cir New Braunfels, TX	5.0	3.5	3283	$2,500	$0.76	44d	1	1.11mi
1922 Brandywine Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1772	$1,900	$1.07	44d	1	1.12mi
900 Barbarosa Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,778	$0.95	18d	1	1.12mi
2073 Turkey Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	44d	1	1.18mi
1216 Grace Park Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	2d	12	1.21mi
947 River Rock New Braunfels, TX	3.0	3.0	1679	$2,095	$1.25	18d	1	1.21mi
1949 Brook Bnd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2303	$2,000	$0.87	5d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $224,900 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Spacious 4 bed 2.5 bath home, open floorplan, kitchen opens to dining area and living room, bonus room would make great second dining room or office, oversized living room, spacious master bedroom and closet, huge secondary bedrooms, back covered porch, storage shed, close to everything that New Braunfels has to offer

16. 2026-05-11
    price $219,900 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Spacious 4 bed 2.5 bath home, open floorplan, kitchen opens to dining area and living room, bonus room would make great second dining room or office, oversized living room, spacious master bedroom and closet, huge secondary bedrooms, back covered porch, storage shed, close to everything that New Braunfels has to offer

17. 2026-04-08
    listed $224,900 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Spacious 4 bed 2.5 bath home, open floorplan, kitchen opens to dining area and living room, bonus room would make great second dining room or office, oversized living room, spacious master bedroom and closet, huge secondary bedrooms, back covered porch, storage shed, close to everything that New Braunfels has to offer

18. 2026-01-07
    historical
19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-12-08
    price $239,000
21. 2025-12-07
    price $239,000
22. 2025-12-05
    price $249,000
23. 2025-11-08
    price $260,000
24. 2025-11-08
    price $260,000
25. 2025-06-24
    listed $279,000 Active
26. 2025-06-23
    listed $279,000 New
27. 2022-08-31
    soldstatus
28. 2006-10-06
    soldstatus
29. 2006-09-27
    soldstatus
30. 2006-03-22
    listed $129,900
31. 2005-09-22
    soldstatus $138,900
32. 2005-08-31
    soldstatus
33. 2005-04-20
    listed $138,900
34. 2005-04-15
    soldstatus
35. 2005-02-23
    historical
36. 2005-02-11
    listed $105,000
37. 2004-11-01
    historical
38. 2004-08-05
    listed $119,999
39. 2001-05-08
    soldstatus
40. 2001-05-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$4,392
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Braunfels, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+87.4% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $224,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $219,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $224,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $239,000 LERA
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $239,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $249,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $260,000 LERA
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $260,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $279,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $279,000 LERA
• 2022-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-27 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2006-03-22 Listed $129,900 LERA
• 2005-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $138,900 Public Records
• 2005-08-31 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2005-04-20 Listed $138,900 LERA
• 2005-04-15 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2005-02-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2005-02-11 Listed $105,000 LERA
• 2004-11-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2004-08-05 Listed $119,999 LERA
• 2001-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,392 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.