Oakridge Plan · Cleburne, TX 76058

$243,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $243,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,527.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marti El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 495 students, 70% FRL); Ad Wheat Middle (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 703 students, 76% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,788 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.57%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,527
• List price: $243,999
• Delta: -12.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1616 County Road 904 Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+14%)	15mo	$299,900	$200	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-64,252
• Equity at exit: $41,678

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,273
• Equity at exit: $24,168

Cash invested: $78,268 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,193/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $236,388

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-105	-5% $-202	+0% $-298	+5% $-395	+10% $-491
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-380	+0% $-298	+5% $-216	+10% $-135
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-227	base $-298	+0.5pp $-371	+1.0pp $-444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,882
• Closing costs: $8,386
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $243,999 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,999 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $243,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,999 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $243,999 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $243,999 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,999 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,999 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,999 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,999 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-02-16
    listed $243,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,658
• − Property taxes: −$4,193
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$8,132
• Taxable loss: −$8,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,049
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including fencing, siding, and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Fencing — Severely overgrown and in poor condition.
• Major Siding — Weathered and in need of repainting.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and requires trimming.
• Major Fencing — Severely overgrown and in poor condition.
• Major Trees — Bare and may need trimming or replacement.
• Major Fencing — Severely overgrown and in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Trimming and repainting the exterior — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value.
• Both Landscaping and fencing repair/replacement — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Interior updates — Enhances the home's livability and appeal to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Fencing · Severely overgrown and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Weathered and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and requires trimming.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Fencing · Severely overgrown and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Trees · Bare and may need trimming or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Fencing · Severely overgrown and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Trimming and repainting the exterior — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and fencing repair/replacement — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Interior updates — Enhances the home's livability and appeal to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,538
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $243,999 Zillow