407 Fletcher St · Jerseyville, IL 62052

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,639 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1956 7,501 sqft lot Est $188k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy well kept home with amazing sun porch. This home features a full basement with kitchen and bathroom, two bedrooms with gorgeous wood floors.. All appliances stay. New furnace and ac.

Key facts

• 7,501 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private ownership
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch and screened porch; City lot, level

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level, one on the lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Free-standing gas oven; Refrigerator; Wood flooring; Basement with block construction
• Laundry & utility: Lower-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($139/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Jerseyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#327 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Jersey CUSD 100 (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #260 of 620 in IL (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Jersey County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jersey County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $125k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,049 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,485
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 S Arch St	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,567 (-4%)	9mo	$179,900	$115	64
610 Cross Winds Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (+3%)	12mo	$195,000	$115	62
2 Breezeway Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+7%)	10mo	$275,000	$157	61
100 Morean St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (-3%)	4mo	$169,000	$106	57
400 N Liberty St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,663 (+2%)	12mo	$139,500	$84	54
419 E Exchange St	0.73mi	2/1.5	1,561 (-5%)	6mo	$85,000	$54	51
404 E Prairie St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,671 (+2%)	13mo	$170,000	$102	49
708 Boulder Way	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (+13%)	1mo	$309,000	$166	49
911 W Exchange St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (-7%)	4mo	$202,000	$133	46
306 E Carpenter St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,857 (+13%)	11mo	$144,900	$78	43
709 W Spruce St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,496 (-9%)	11mo	$165,000	$110	39
510 N Liberty St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,544 (-6%)	14mo	$214,900	$139	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $68,840
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $202,187
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62052

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,992/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $47	+0% $12	+5% $-24	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-33	+0% $12	+5% $56	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $43	base $12	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $125,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-08
   listed $125,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,992
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$471
• After-tax cash flow: $610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jersey CUSD 100
• NCES district ID: 1720430
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $52,066
• Composite: 25.13/100
• National rank: #7522
• State rank: #260 of 620 in IL

Livability — Jerseyville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #6498

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jerseyville, IL
• City population: 12,483
• Population (ZIP): 12,483

Population outlook (Jersey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,031 people
• By 2030: 20,138 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 18,077 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 15,882 · -24.5%
• By 2075: 11,718 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 8,546 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jersey

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.1% · R 74.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.7pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+2.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 255.48
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+152.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-17 Price Changed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-17 Price Changed $79,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-30 Listed $82,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,992 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.