200 State Rt 94 Unit 307 · Vernon, NJ 07462-3323

$179,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Condo public records · 273 Days on market

Built 2007 $607/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this One bedroom condo at the Appalachian Lodge at New Jersey's premier ski resort Mountain Creek. This home away from home is all you could hope for in a vacation retreat. Situated at the base of the ski slopes and a short walk to the nearby waterpark makes this location both convenient and easy. Enjoy golfing at the nearby 27 hole golf course at Great Gorge, or go treescaping and zip lining, just some of the other activities provided at Mountain Creek. Truly the best kept secret in New Jersey. There is also an optional rental program available to owners. Purchaser is responsible for a one time fee of 2% of the purchase price payable to Mountain Creek Association.

Key facts

• Nearby golf course
• Ski resort
• One bedroom condo

Tags

• ONE BEDROOM CONDO
• SKI RESORT
• BASE OF THE SKI SLOPES
• SHORT WALK TO WATERPARK
• NEARBY GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (16.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Glen Meadow Middle School (math 14% / reading 47%, grade F, #303 of 431 statewide, top 72%, 645 students, 17% FRL); Vernon Township High School (math 20% / reading 52%, grade F, #230 of 399 statewide, top 58%, 929 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.

Recommended offer $150,931 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $11,713
• Equity at exit: $80,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $57,032
• Equity at exit: $124,662

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07462-3323

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,230/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$607
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,504

Max offer price $150,931

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-113	+0% $-164	+5% $-215	+10% $-266
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-255	+0% $-164	+5% $-73	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-118	base $-164	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Stonehill Dr #1 Vernon, NJ	2.0	1.0	748	$2,100	$2.81	45d	1	0.72mi
7 Theta Dr Apt 311 Vernon Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	715	$2,475	$3.46	45d	1	1.18mi
7 Theta Dr Apt 211 Vernon Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	715	$2,425	$3.39	45d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $607 · $7,284/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $179,900 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $179,900 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,900 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,900 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,900 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $179,900 Active 268 DOM
7. 2025-09-04
   listed $179,900 Active 680-char remark

   Show marketing remark (680 chars)

   Enjoy this One bedroom condo at the Appalachian Lodge at New Jersey's premier ski resort Mountain Creek. This home away from home is all you could hope for in a vacation retreat. Situated at the base of the ski slopes and a short walk to the nearby waterpark makes this location both convenient and easy. Enjoy golfing at the nearby 27 hole golf course at Great Gorge, or go treescaping and zip lining, just some of the other activities provided at Mountain Creek. Truly the best kept secret in New Jersey. There is also an optional rental program available to owners. Purchaser is responsible for a one time fee of 2% of the purchase price payable to Mountain Creek Association.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,230 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$4,230
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − HOA: −$7,284
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416710
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $84,455
• Composite: 30.63/100
• National rank: #6188
• State rank: #294 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vernon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernon Center, NJ

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,413 people
• By 2030: 127,324 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 113,987 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 100,391 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 78,063 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 62,346 · -53.3%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Listed $179,900 GSMLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,230 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.