11535 Black Lock Rd · Naples, NY 14512

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1997 1.25 ac lot $105/sqft · 40% below area Est $265k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled into the hillside on over an acre, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offers a peaceful setting and beautiful surroundings. Step inside to find vaulted ceilings that create an open airy feel, complimented by a spacious kitchen with plenty of room for cooking and a dance here and there. The primary suite features an impressive size bathroom designed for relaxation. Office or spare bedrooms give you plenty of space to either grow or have guests and work from home. With a brand new metal roof and comfortable one level living, this home is ready to enjoy this spring. Lots of flowers are ready to bloom, which you can enjoy on the front deck overlooking the hills.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings
• One level living

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• IMPRESSIVE SIZE BATHROOM
• ONE LEVEL LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($811/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.1% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#608 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Naples Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #292 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $159k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $140,049 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,045
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -40.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11534 Maple Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,638 (+8%)	2mo	$168,000	$103	66
11567 Maple Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,374 (-9%)	5mo	$172,000	$125	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,478
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,227
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14512

• Home prices YoY: -4.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-16
   price $159,000 668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (668 chars)

   Nestled into the hillside on over an acre, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offers a peaceful setting and beautiful surroundings. Step inside to find vaulted ceilings that create an open airy feel, complimented by a spacious kitchen with plenty of room for cooking and a dance here and there. The primary suite features an impressive size bathroom designed for relaxation. Office or spare bedrooms give you plenty of space to either grow or have guests and work from home. With a brand new metal roof and comfortable one level living, this home is ready to enjoy this spring. Lots of flowers are ready to bloom, which you can enjoy on the front deck overlooking the hills.

2. 2026-03-30
   price $169,000 668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (668 chars)

   Nestled into the hillside on over an acre, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offers a peaceful setting and beautiful surroundings. Step inside to find vaulted ceilings that create an open airy feel, complimented by a spacious kitchen with plenty of room for cooking and a dance here and there. The primary suite features an impressive size bathroom designed for relaxation. Office or spare bedrooms give you plenty of space to either grow or have guests and work from home. With a brand new metal roof and comfortable one level living, this home is ready to enjoy this spring. Lots of flowers are ready to bloom, which you can enjoy on the front deck overlooking the hills.

3. 2026-03-05
   listed $179,000 Active 668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (668 chars)

   Nestled into the hillside on over an acre, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch offers a peaceful setting and beautiful surroundings. Step inside to find vaulted ceilings that create an open airy feel, complimented by a spacious kitchen with plenty of room for cooking and a dance here and there. The primary suite features an impressive size bathroom designed for relaxation. Office or spare bedrooms give you plenty of space to either grow or have guests and work from home. With a brand new metal roof and comfortable one level living, this home is ready to enjoy this spring. Lots of flowers are ready to bloom, which you can enjoy on the front deck overlooking the hills.

4. 2020-01-10
   soldstatus $45,000
5. 2020-01-07
   soldstatus $45,000 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity on a 1.25 acre lot, nestled among picturesque scenery, just minutes away from the charming village of Naples, hiking trails and neighboring wineries. The property is being sold "As Is. " Discover 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths. Spacious kitchen and living area is just waiting for your special touch!

6. 2019-09-04
   listed $60,000 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity on a 1.25 acre lot, nestled among picturesque scenery, just minutes away from the charming village of Naples, hiking trails and neighboring wineries. The property is being sold "As Is. " Discover 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths. Spacious kitchen and living area is just waiting for your special touch!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$511/yr (+$43/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$450
• After-tax cash flow: $1,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Naples Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620220
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,934
• Composite: 47.91/100
• National rank: #2212
• State rank: #292 of 590 in NY

Livability — Naples

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #10973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,908

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.68%
• Current HPI: 301.9192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+165.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $159,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $169,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $179,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-07 Sold (MLS) $45,000 UNYREIS
• 2019-09-04 Listed $60,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,665 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.