1443 Alesio St · The Villages, FL 32163

$455,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2013 5,785 sqft lot Est $503k · 9% under $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. ALL NEW FLOORING INSTALLED - NEW PHOTOS COMING SOON! NEW ROOF COMPLETE 5-6-2026! FANTASTIC LOCATION! Very Close to Brownwood Town Square! This well maintained home in Gilchrist is Ready to Go! NEW HVAC Nov 2025. This home in The Villages Florida is the Popular BEGONIA Floorplan that has 3 Bedrooms (3rd Bedroom has no closet), 2 Bathrooms and the HUGE DRAW a 2 1/2 Car Garage home. The home offers a lot of extras with VAULTED CEILINGS, KNOCKDOWN CEILINGS and a ROMAN SHOWER. The home is a great entertaining home since the Kitchen, Dining Room (No Columns) and Living Room are very open. The Kitchen is has a lot of cabinets (with Rollouts) and countertop space. The Primary

Key facts

• Knockdown ceilings
• New hvac
• Begonia floorplan

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• BEGONIA FLOORPLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• KNOCKDOWN CEILINGS
• ROMAN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association monthly fees and annual fees apply
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community pool; Tennis courts; Dog park; Golf and golf cart friendly community; Association-owned recreational facilities; Community mailbox; Deed-restricted community; Association fee covers pool and recreational facilities; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage door opener; Golf cart garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Southwest facing; Slab foundation; Builder model: Begonia
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened patio/porch; Rear porch; Patio; Porch; Metered sprinkler system; Irrigation equipment (reclaimed water available)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted and tray ceilings; Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-873 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (33.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,858 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.22%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $502,740
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1450 Luckett Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,925 (+2%)	7mo	$454,900	$236	83
3009 Olenda Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,851 (-2%)	5mo	$418,000	$226	76
1586 Lemon Loop	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,910 (+1%)	4mo	$625,000	$327	66
2977 Stepping Stone Path	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,958 (+4%)	0mo	$700,000	$358	63
1422 Nugget Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,937 (+2%)	2mo	$525,000	$271	62
1326 Brinkley Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,081 (+10%)	2mo	$495,000	$238	60
3011 Bureau Path	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,006 (+6%)	4mo	$773,300	$385	57
3178 Killington Loop	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,939 (+3%)	6mo	$515,000	$266	56
1606 Tango St	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,107 (+12%)	5mo	$614,000	$291	52
3198 Abana Path	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,665 (-12%)	6mo	$370,000	$222	51
2962 Stepping Stone Path	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,072 (+10%)	2mo	$475,000	$229	50
1198 Reading Rd	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,168 (+15%)	1mo	$544,000	$251	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $192,367
• Equity at exit: $409,900

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $610,461
• Equity at exit: $883,965

Cash invested: $127,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,125/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,165

Max offer price $300,858

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-615	-5% $-744	+0% $-873	+5% $-1,001	+10% $-1,130
Rent	-10% $-1,114	-5% $-993	+0% $-873	+5% $-752	+10% $-631
Rate	-1.0pp $-643	-0.5pp $-757	base $-873	+0.5pp $-990	+1.0pp $-1,110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,750
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3394 Ridgewood Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$4,000	$2.57	21d	1	0.36mi
3314 Abana Path Unit 1525266P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,770	$1.13	21d	1	0.47mi
3068 Islawild Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,200	$1.43	21d	1	0.86mi
2875 Rain Lily Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1965	$4,490	$2.28	21d	1	1.00mi
798 Journey Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,300	$1.48	21d	1	1.14mi
1109 Alcove Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1970	$3,000	$1.52	21d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $455,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $455,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $455,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $455,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $455,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $455,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $455,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $455,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $455,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $455,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $455,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $455,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $455,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $455,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,125 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,125 · $510/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$6,125
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,938
• − Management: −$2,938
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable loss: −$18,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,494
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $455,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,125 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.